4 Million BTC Could Add Selling Pressure Near Bitcoin’s $85,000

About 4 million BTC bought between $85,000 and $118,000 sit with long-term holders and remain underwater, according to Glassnode’s on-chain analysis, creating a roughly $326 billion block of potential selling pressure near Bitcoin’s $85,000 recovery level.

Glassnode defines long-term holders as investors holding coins for more than 155 days. It said most of the 4 million-coin block was bought in 2025, and more than half of all long-term-holder coins were bought above Bitcoin’s current price.

The block was worth about $326 billion at a Bitcoin price of around $81,400, up 1.2% over the previous 24 hours but roughly 35% below the all-time high of $126,080, Glassnode said.

Why is $85,000 the key level?

Glassnode said a $84,000–$85,000 band has turned Bitcoin back four times this year. Bitcoin last broke above the band in September, peaking at $87,100.

“$85K keeps turning $BTC back. Since January, Bitcoin has closed above it on only five days, never more than three in a row,” Glassnode wrote on October 28, 2026, ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision.

ETF holders are also near break-even. Glassnode put the average price paid by U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds at $81,500. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart estimated that figure just below $82,000 on Wednesday, with Bitcoin trading around $81,600.

Seyffart’s chart put ETF holders’ average unrealized loss at about $2.63 billion as of Monday. He said in replies that the estimate tracks only fund flows, not what secondary-market buyers paid.

What do rates and ETF flows change?

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.75%–4.00% on Wednesday in a 10-2 vote. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented in favor of a hike, while traders had placed December hike odds above 70% before the decision.

The 10-year Treasury yield stood just under 5% at midday Thursday, according to CNBC, down from 5.05% at Wednesday’s close and a 52-week high of 5.37% on October 7.

Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey, said traders had priced a December hike in to some extent. He also said persistently high Treasury yields and real interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding risk assets.

Lower funding rates on Bitcoin perpetual futures have squeezed returns from cash-and-carry arbitrage, which pairs spot Bitcoin with short futures. Galaxy Research found that nine hedge funds and banks cut 68,000 BTC worth of spot ETF exposure as the trade dried up, while wealth platforms and sovereign funds added.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in about $424 million from Monday through Wednesday, according to SoSoValue, after $635 million left the funds on October 22.

Is the market showing panic selling?

Glassnode and Sun both pointed to limited selling rather than broad capitulation. Glassnode found that realized losses outweighed profits by about $630 million in a day at the August low, compared with a largest daily net loss of roughly $27 million around the October 24 dip.

“The core issue facing the market right now is not panic selling, but rather insufficient new buying interest to support a sustained recovery,” Sun said.

On the downside, Glassnode pointed to about $42 million in bids between $78,000 and $79,000 on Binance. The average cost basis for newer buyers stood at $75,800.

Sun expects Bitcoin to trade between $75,000 and $85,000 in the short term until macro liquidity improves and ETFs resume continuous net inflows. He said whether selling pressure near $85,000 can be absorbed will determine whether the market can regain strength.

December’s rate decision provides the next market-structure test: sustained ETF inflows will need to absorb long-term-holder selling if Bitcoin clears $85,000, and traders priced a quarter-point hike at more than 70% odds beforehand.