Bitcoin Apparent Demand Slides to -284,000 BTC, Weakest Since April

Bitcoin's 30-day apparent demand fell to negative 284,000 BTC, its weakest reading since April 2025, as U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF flows flipped to outflows and mid-sized wallets reduced their holdings.

The metric, which tracks issuance-adjusted absorption of new supply, last hit this level in April 2025. On-chain data shows the deterioration came from two directions at once: exchange-traded products and wallets holding between 10 and 1,000 BTC.

Who is selling and who is buying?

The distribution is uneven across holder cohorts. Wallets holding 10 to 1,000 BTC cut their balances by roughly 64,900 BTC over the measured window, according to on-chain records. Wallets holding at least 1,000 BTC — commonly labeled whales or large entities — moved the other way, adding about 47,000 BTC.

The large-wallet accumulation did not offset the selling. The mid-tier reduction of 64,900 BTC plus ETF outflows overwhelmed the 47,000 BTC of whale buying, leaving the aggregate 30-day figure deep in negative territory.

What happened to ETF flows?

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs swung hard. They went from net inflows of 49,700 BTC to net outflows of 29,600 BTC — a reversal of nearly 79,000 BTC in flow terms.

That flip matters structurally. Spot ETFs have been the primary institutional conduit for Bitcoin exposure since their January 2024 launch, and their flow direction tends to anchor broader demand measures. When ETFs turn to outflows and mid-tier wallets distribute at the same time, the apparent-demand gauge has little support left, regardless of what the largest holders do.

The result is the first sub-April-2025 reading in seven months, and it comes with realized losses stacking up underneath it.

How deep are the realized losses?

From Oct. 29 through Nov. 13, net realized losses were recorded on 14 of 16 trading days, totaling about 84,000 BTC. That means coins bought at higher prices were spent or moved at a loss on nearly every session in that stretch.

Nov. 13 stands out. Realized losses hit 18,500 BTC that day, the largest single-day total of the current downturn. A spike of that size typically signals capitulation among short-term holders — coins acquired near recent highs finally changing hands below cost basis.

What does this mean going forward?

The setup is a classic divergence: the largest wallets accumulating while institutional products and the 10-to-1,000 BTC cohort distribute. If ETF flows stabilize and the mid-tier selling exhausts itself, the 84,000 BTC in realized losses since late October could mark a supply flush rather than the start of a longer unwind. The next tranche of ETF flow data will show whether Nov. 13's capitulation was the peak of the outflow cycle.