Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Headed for Biggest Cut Since June

Bitcoin's mining difficulty is on track for its largest downward adjustment since June, with current projections pointing to a cut of 6.4% to 7.8% at the next recalibration, expected around November 13, 2026.

Difficulty currently stands at 148.36 trillion (T), a level set by a 5.54% increase on October 29. The expected reversal would be the steepest decline since June's 10.09% cut, though it would still fall short of that summer drop.

Why is difficulty falling?

The mechanics are straightforward. Bitcoin targets roughly one block every 10 minutes, and during the current epoch blocks have averaged between 10 minutes 46 seconds and 10 minutes 50 seconds — well behind schedule. Every 2,016 blocks, the network measures how long that batch actually took and recalibrates difficulty to pull average block times back toward the 10-minute target.

There is no committee, no vote, no press release. The adjustment happens automatically, which is why analysts can project the size of the move days in advance simply by reading block timing within the current epoch.

What happened to hashrate?

The hashrate underpinning the network has been wobbling. After a summer slump, computing power climbed back above 1 ZH/s in October — a milestone equal to 1,000 EH/s. November has been more cautious: seven-day hashrate averages this month have ranged between 963 and 1,069 EH/s, leaving the network hovering around, and at times below, that mark.

The coming cut follows a busy October in the other direction. Two sharp difficulty increases that month raised the level by a combined 11.8%, bringing difficulty within about 4.9% of its all-time high of 155.97T, set in October 2025. The network has now spent more than 374 days below that record, and a downward adjustment would widen the gap again.

Several forces are shaping conditions on the ground. Seasonal energy curtailments — where miners power down to ease grid strain or avoid peak electricity prices — can pull machines offline. Hashprice, the revenue miners earn per unit of computing power, has fluctuated around $33 to $35 per petahash per day. Bitcoin itself has been trading between $75,000 and $77,000.

What does the cut mean for miners?

The most direct beneficiaries are miners themselves. Lower difficulty means each machine has a better shot at winning blocks, so the same hardware produces more Bitcoin for the same electricity bill.

The revenue context matters here. Miner revenue reached approximately $1.215 billion in October, the highest monthly total since November 2025. So the cut is not arriving in a moment of crisis — it follows a strong month, with a softer start to November.

What should markets watch next?

Three variables will shape the next few weeks:

• The final adjustment figure. Whether it lands closer to the low or high end of the 6.4% to 7.8% range depends on block times over the remaining blocks in the epoch.
• Post-cut hashrate. A quick return above 1 ZH/s would signal that miners see the easier conditions as worth chasing, likely setting up another difficulty increase.
• The 155.97T record. October brought the network within striking distance. Whether difficulty can reclaim that level — and end a streak that has already run past 374 days — will say a lot about how much appetite miners have to keep expanding at current prices.

The November 13 recalibration lands automatically, with no discretion involved. What miners do with the easier conditions afterward will determine whether the dip is a pause or the start of a longer retreat from October's highs.