Bitcoin Supply in Profit Drops to 60.6% as ETFs Bleed $1.28 Billion

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.28 billion in net outflows between Nov. 2 and Nov. 6, according to weekly flow data, as Bitcoin's supply-in-profit share fell to 60.6% through Nov. 8. The decline marks a second week of deteriorating positioning across spot and derivatives markets.

The supply-in-profit metric, which measures the proportion of circulating Bitcoin held at addresses with unrealized gains, dropped from 62.9% seven days earlier. That 2.3 percentage-point slide means roughly two in five coins now sit below their last acquisition price. The reading is a coarse gauge; it cannot distinguish between long-term holders choosing not to sell and buyers trapped at higher entry points.

What do the short-term holder losses signal?

Investors who bought Bitcoin within the previous 155 days — a cohort known as short-term holders — carried a small unrealized loss on Nov. 8. A Nov. 4 reading had already shown most coins held by that group below their purchase prices. That admission matters: the newest capital in the market is the most likely to capitulate under sustained pressure.

Still, the source data does not specify the size of the aggregate unrealized loss, nor how it compares with prior drawdowns in this cycle. The loss is described as small, which suggests stress rather than distress. In plain words: recent buyers are underwater, but not deeply enough to force widespread capitulation on the evidence available.

How are ETF flows and futures positioning shifting?

The $1.28 billion in net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs across the Nov. 2-6 trading week represents the institutional side of the same retrenchment. Five trading days produced average daily outflows of roughly $256 million — a pace that, if sustained for a month, would approach $5 billion in cumulative withdrawals. The data does not break out flows by individual issuer, so the concentration of redemptions across the largest funds remains unknown.

Derivatives markets tell a parallel story. Bitcoin futures open interest stood at $37.0 billion, down from $37.4 billion a week earlier — a decline of about 1%. The contraction is modest against the ETF outflow figure, which suggests leverage is being pared back slowly rather than flushed out in a liquidation cascade. Whether that restraint holds depends on whether short-term holder losses deepen in coming weeks.

What happens next?

Each metric released here is backward-looking, and none establishes a trend on its own. The supply-in-profit share will update weekly, and the next ETF flow prints arrive daily; together they will show whether the Nov. 2-6 outflow week was an isolated rebalancing or the start of a sustained withdrawal cycle. If short-term holders move from small unrealized losses to material ones, the following week's readings should capture the response.