Bitcoin whale accumulation diverges from $95 million ETF outflow

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $95 million in net withdrawals through Nov. 10, even as two large-wallet cohorts returned to accumulation, according to Farside Investors’ flow data and Glassnode’s on-chain cohort analysis.

Farside Investors’ completed November data show net withdrawals in six of seven trading sessions from Nov. 2 through Nov. 10. Outflows resumed after inflows on Nov. 4 and continued in every subsequent completed session shown, including Nov. 9 and Nov. 10.

Glassnode said both cohorts spent much of October distributing before reversing to accumulation. The same two groups accumulated in late September, but that phase did not last, according to Glassnode’s report.

What does the two-cohort accumulation signal show?

Glassnode’s seven-day metric weights entities by Bitcoin balance size and changes in those balances over the observation window. It excludes exchange and miner entities. A score near 1 indicates stronger weighted accumulation, while a reading near 0 can indicate distribution or a lack of accumulation.

The rolling construction makes the score a summary of balance changes across the week rather than a label for one session. A near-zero reading also does not prove that every tracked wallet sold Bitcoin: the metric can indicate either distribution or a lack of accumulation.

The cohort behavior suggests that some large holders added to their Bitcoin balances after reducing them through much of October. Glassnode also characterized participation elsewhere as weak, keeping renewed buying concentrated in the two tracked groups rather than evidence of a broader, synchronized move.

The metric does not identify beneficial owners. Its Bitcoin balance bands do not establish whether holders are institutions, individuals, or users of a particular funding source. The score therefore supports a wallet-balance conclusion, not a verified claim about the type of holder making the purchases.

That limitation also blocks a firm institutional-demand conclusion. A positive cohort score can indicate accumulation without revealing whether institutions, individuals or a particular funding source drove the purchases.

Why can’t ETF outflows be matched to whale buying?

The datasets operate on different bases. Farside’s ETF figures measure net money entering or leaving the funds, while Glassnode’s cohort score tracks weighted on-chain balance accumulation. Their units cannot be offset to determine whether large-wallet buying covered ETF withdrawals.

Neither dataset connects the accumulating groups to the other side of ETF redemptions. Identifying who acquired the Bitcoin associated with those withdrawals would require information that the two measures do not provide. As a result, the $95 million of ETF outflows cannot be presented as Bitcoin that the two cohorts demonstrably absorbed.

The distinction matters for market interpretation. ETF withdrawals describe net money entering or leaving the funds, and the cohort score describes balance changes among selected non-exchange, non-miner entities. The datasets do not reveal counterparties, funding routes or beneficial owners across the two systems, so the apparent divergence does not establish a direct transfer.

The seven-session flow record offers no matching path for that inference. It establishes that six sessions were negative and one was positive, but it does not identify which investors made the withdrawals or where the associated Bitcoin went.

For analysts, the measures can be read together only as separate indicators of market participation. They cannot be reconciled transaction by transaction or investor by investor because the source populations and units differ.

What would confirm broader Bitcoin demand?

Glassnode said a broader improvement would require more wallet-size groups to join the Bitcoin accumulation signal alongside sustained net ETF inflows. Those two developments would strengthen the case that demand is spreading beyond the two groups currently adding to holdings.

For now, Glassnode characterized the evidence as “localized support.” The short-lived late-September accumulation episode shows why persistence remains “an open test,” even after both cohorts moved from October distribution back into accumulation.

The near-term evidence is therefore mixed: fund flows remained negative through Nov. 10, with withdrawals in six of seven completed sessions, while the on-chain cohort indicator pointed to renewed accumulation. A broader market-structure shift would require continued accumulation across more wallet-size groups and a separate run of sustained net ETF inflows, conditions Glassnode said would strengthen the case that demand is spreading.