Bitcoin–Stock Correlation Hit 0.8 as Spot ETFs Bled $1.91 Billion

U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $1.9074 billion in net outflows across seven consecutive trading sessions, while Bitcoin's 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 climbed to roughly 0.8 during the Nov. 5 sell-off, on-chain and market data show.

The S&P 500 fell 4.4% on Nov. 5. Bitcoin tracked that decline closely. The 30-day correlation coefficient between the cryptocurrency and both major U.S. equity indexes reached approximately 0.8 over the measured window — a level at which the two assets moved in near lockstep. The correlation figure describes how closely the assets traded together over the period; it does not establish that one market caused moves in the other.

How the outflows unfolded

The ETF withdrawals were relentless. Funds posted net outflows in every U.S. trading session from Nov. 5 through Nov. 13, with no single day of positive flow to interrupt the streak:

• Nov. 5: $430.2 million
• Nov. 6: $411.9 million
• Nov. 9: $201 million
• Nov. 10: $95 million
• Nov. 11: $299.8 million
• Nov. 12: $284.1 million
• Nov. 13: $185.4 million

The heaviest redemptions came at the front of the window. Investors pulled more than $840 million in the first two sessions alone — roughly 44% of the full seven-day total. Flows then moderated, bottoming at $95 million on Nov. 10 before re-accelerating above $284 million in the final three sessions.

For context, the $1.91 billion total averages out to just over $272 million per session, every session, for a week and a half of trading. That is a sustained institutional retrenchment, not a one-day panic.

What does the macro backdrop say?

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.4% seasonally adjusted in October, while the measure excluding food and energy increased 0.3%. The report came with a statistical caveat: October 2026 year-over-year changes were unavailable for indexes lacking October 2025 data, because survey data were not collected that month during a lapse in appropriations.

The inflation figures, the ETF flows and the equity correlation describe market conditions across different measures. They do not establish an effect from October inflation on cryptocurrency prices. Readers should treat each data point as an independent observation, not a causal chain.

What does this change for practitioners?

The 0.8 correlation reading carries a practical consequence for anyone running a portfolio that holds both Bitcoin exposure and U.S. equities. At that level, Bitcoin offered almost no diversification benefit during the sell-off — the very episode when diversification is most needed. Allocators who sized crypto positions on the assumption of partial decorrelation from stocks saw that assumption fail precisely when it mattered.

The ETF outflow streak matters for a second reason. Seven consecutive negative sessions indicate that the spot ETF channel, which absorbed tens of billions in inflows after launch, can also transmit selling pressure efficiently. When redemption pressure persists through the primary institutional wrapper for Bitcoin exposure, the marginal buyer of last month becomes the marginal seller of this one.

The next inflation print and the following round of monthly CPI data, contingent on the resumption of full survey collection, will show whether the outflow streak extends into a second month or reverses as equity volatility subsides.