Bitfinex Projects Bitcoin Issuance Near 0.4% After 2028 Halving

Bitfinex estimates that Bitcoin will issue new coins at an annual rate of approximately 0.4% following its expected 2028 halving, attaching a precise figure to the supply trajectory that practitioners have long discussed in directional terms. The exchange also put Ether's annual supply growth at 0.8% to 0.9%, offering a comparative frame for the two largest crypto assets by market capitalization.

The projection, published by Bitfinex, quantifies what the network's programmed reward cuts mean in annual percentage terms once the next halving takes effect. A 0.4% annual issuance rate means that, at that pace, newly mined Bitcoin would expand the total supply by roughly four-tenths of one percent per year — a figure lower than most major central banks' inflation targets and, for context, well below the long-run average inflation rate of developed economies.

How the halving schedule produces that number

Bitcoin's protocol cuts the mining reward in half every 210,000 blocks, which translates to roughly every four years. The most recent halving, on April 20, 2024, lowered the block reward to 3.125 BTC per block. The next reduction is estimated for 2028, though Bitfinex noted that the calendar timing can shift as block production varies. Because blocks do not arrive at perfectly regular intervals, the halving date is an estimate rather than a fixed calendar event.

The issuance regimes of the two networks differ in structure. Bitcoin relies on recurring, deterministic block-reward cuts written into its protocol, which mechanically reduce new supply at each halving. Ethereum's issuance dynamics operate under a different rule set, which is why Bitfinex's Ether estimate of 0.8% to 0.9% annual supply growth sits above the projected post-2028 Bitcoin rate even before the next halving arrives.

What does this change for market participants?

For miners, the projection sharpens the revenue picture: the 2028 halving will once again halve the subsidy earned per block, compressing an already thin margin between issuance revenue and operating cost. The April 2024 cut to 3.125 BTC per block set that dynamic in motion, and the estimated 2028 event extends it.

For analysts and portfolio managers, the figures supply a baseline for comparing cryptoasset supply growth against traditional monetary aggregates. A Bitcoin issuance rate of about 0.4% per year, contrasted with Ether's estimated 0.8% to 0.9%, frames the two assets as distinct supply profiles rather than interchangeable exposures, and the gap widens after each successive Bitcoin halving.

For traders, the practical question is timing. The 2028 halving remains an estimate, and its exact date will firm up only as block production data accumulates through the intervening years. Positions and narratives built around the event carry calendar risk until the block height approaches.

The issuance numbers themselves are fixed by protocol rules rather than discretion. What remains variable is when the next halving lands — and market attention will tighten on block-production data as the estimated 2028 window draws closer.