The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed two rulemakings with the White House on Sept. 28 that would rewrite the federal "swap" definition to capture prediction-market event contracts, according to the regulator's submissions to the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs.

The first filing, RIN 3038-AF82, is a proposed rule explicitly defining event contracts as swaps and is set to open for public comment. The second, an interim final rule under RIN 3038-AF81, would simultaneously exclude "casino-style gambling products" from the swap definition and could take effect on White House approval. The CFTC classified both as not economically significant; full rule text has not been released.

Why the 'swap' definition is the crux

Treating event contracts as swaps would route the yes-or-no wagers traded on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket under CFTC jurisdiction and, the agency argues, beyond the reach of state gambling regulators. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig has maintained that the agency's authority over these products is exclusive.

The classification underpins a multi-front jurisdictional fight:

• State attorneys general in multiple jurisdictions have sued prediction-market operators alleging illegal gambling.
• The CFTC has countersued to block state oversight of the same contracts.
• Conflicting federal appellate decisions on whether the products qualify as swaps are now drawing Supreme Court attention.

A regulator filling the legislative gap

The Sept. 28 OIRA submissions extend a pattern of the CFTC pressing ahead with its own rules instead of waiting on Congress, consistent with the post-Clarity Act shift toward regulators setting digital-asset policy from the executive branch. The agency separately filed a broader crypto-markets rulemaking with OIRA in recent weeks, while its staff cautioned that contracts tied to public statements invite manipulation.

Federal enforcement is accelerating in parallel. The CFTC has opened an investigation into former Rep. Adam Kinzinger over Kalshi bets tied to his own pardon. The Commission also issued an advisory earlier this week warning against "mention markets" — contracts that settle on whether a named individual says specified words — which the regulator said should be presumed "readily susceptible to manipulation." The same advisory flagged sports betting, election markets and other contracts the CFTC considers prone to insider abuse.

State pressure compounds the federal push

State enforcers are not deferring to Washington. New York sued Polymarket last week seeking a ban on the platform within the state, the most recent salvo in a campaign that mirrors an earlier enforcement action against Kalshi. With state and federal litigation running on parallel tracks, the pending swap-definition rulemakings would short-circuit that courtroom contest in the agency's favor.

What changes next

For now, the OIRA filings signal regulatory intent rather than final rules. The interim final rule (AF81) could take effect upon White House approval, while the proposed rule (AF82) opens a formal comment window once published. By writing the swap definition itself, the CFTC is attempting to settle in regulation what courts and states have been litigating case by case — a posture whose first market-structure tests will come as Kalshi and Polymarket contests proceed and the Supreme Court weighs the underlying appellate split on event-contract classification.