Coin Metrics Forecasts Higher Binance Supply After Address Update

By Nathan Brooks

Coin Metrics expects Binance’s reported Bitcoin exchange-supply metric to rise after a planned revision to its exchange-address list, according to the firm’s Nov. 4 notice. The adjustment is expected to affect hourly readings for Nov. 4 and daily readings for Nov. 5. It does not indicate that Binance received more coins.

Coin Metrics did not estimate the size of the revision. Its Nov. 4 notice said some hourly figures for Nov. 4 and daily figures for Nov. 5 would be higher, but provided no expected increase in either bitcoin or U.S. dollars. It separately highlighted Binance’s supply measures in BTC and U.S. dollars.

What exactly is changing?

The planned revision expands the set of exchange wallets included in Coin Metrics’ calculations, broadening the addresses whose coins count toward Binance’s reported supply. Unlike a deposit, the update changes what the data provider can observe rather than what Binance receives.

Coin Metrics attributes the projected increase to broader wallet coverage rather than a change in actual holdings. Adding a newly identified address can lift the reported balance even if no coins moved into Binance during the measurement interval.

Exchange supply is an end-of-period snapshot of coins held in wallets identified with an exchange. It covers both hot wallets, which typically handle transactions, and cold wallets, which store assets outside routine operational use. Coins tied to an unidentified address can remain missing from the recorded balance even though the exchange holds them.

The U.S.-dollar measure adds another layer of interpretation because it reflects both the amount of BTC counted and Bitcoin’s market price. A higher dollar-denominated reading therefore does not, by itself, establish that Binance received additional Bitcoin or completed additional sales.

How do balances, deposits and trades differ?

• Exchange-supply balances: These provide an end-of-period snapshot. They show the BTC attributed to identified exchange wallets at a specific reporting point, including both hot and cold wallets.
• Deposit data: These capture transfers into known exchange wallets during a defined interval. They establish that assets arrived at identified addresses, but not whether a customer placed an order or completed a sale.
• Executed-trade records: These separately document completed transactions, including their timing, price and amount. Where the taker side is known, a sell-taker trade means an incoming sell order matched a resting bid.

These datasets answer different questions. A closing balance shows what an exchange held at the end of an interval, while deposit data shows which assets moved during that interval. Executed trades provide a further measure of market activity rather than wallet coverage.

Coin Metrics also provides point-in-time exchange measures for historical comparisons. Those series preserve the addresses known during each interval, so a wallet discovered later is not treated as though researchers had already identified it at the time.

Reading balances, deposits and trades over matching observation periods helps separate a methodological change in wallet coverage from a genuine change in market activity. Applying the revised address list retrospectively could therefore create a misleading comparison with periods when the same wallet remained unidentified.

What does this change for market participants?

Readers should not convert the higher Binance supply figure into evidence of new inflows, customer deposits or selling pressure. The number changes because Coin Metrics expects to count more wallet addresses, and the firm has not supplied enough information to quantify either the BTC or dollar adjustment.

The practical change is methodological: any analysis that combines exchange balances, deposits and executed trades must preserve consistent address coverage and observation windows. Otherwise, a coverage revision can resemble an abrupt accumulation or withdrawal of Bitcoin even when no comparable change occurred in Binance’s actual holdings or trading activity.

On the broader economic calendar, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release October’s Consumer Price Index on Tuesday, Nov. 10, at 8:30 a.m. ET (13:30 UTC).

The next checkpoint is the revised Nov. 4 hourly and Nov. 5 daily series; until each is reconciled with deposits and executed trades over the same intervals, the higher figure remains a coverage adjustment rather than evidence of new market activity.