Corporate Bitcoin Buying Could Return by Late 2026 — But Selectively

By Marcus Bennett

Corporate Bitcoin buying slowed to a trickle in the third quarter. Strategy added a net 1,666 BTC between July and September, down from 83,901 BTC in Q2, according to company filings. Other public companies picked up a net 5,617 BTC, against 45,725 BTC the quarter before.

Those numbers come from Bitwise head of research Ryan Rasmussen, who described a broad slowdown in treasury buying across the sector. The figure for non-Strategy buyers represents a drop of roughly 88% quarter over quarter.

The machinery behind the 2025 treasury boom simply stopped working. Companies once raised capital by issuing shares at a premium to the value of their Bitcoin holdings. Those premiums narrowed or vanished. Issuing new stock became dilutive and unattractive, and the buying spree lost its fuel.

"A return to last year's indiscriminate capital raising looks unlikely," said Jag Kooner, head of derivatives at Bitfinix — in fact, Bitfinex — where he tracks the leveraged structures underpinning the trade.

Why did the treasury trade stall?

The mechanics matter here. A treasury company trading above the value of its Bitcoin can print shares, sell them, buy more Bitcoin, and still leave existing holders with the same Bitcoin exposure per share. That flywheel turned all through 2025. Then it jammed.

"Shareholders have seen premiums collapse and some companies sell into weakness. Investors are now pricing these businesses on funding costs, balance-sheet discipline and bitcoin per share," Kooner said.

The casualties are already visible. Bitwise's October market report showed the number of Bitcoin treasuries declined in Q3, driven by smaller firms abandoning the strategy. Rasmussen said a dozen companies that entered during the 2025 boom sold their entire holdings, mostly to repay debt or return cash to shareholders after their stock premiums evaporated.

What does this change for the next rally?

Rasmussen expects corporate purchases to re-accelerate as early as this year, with a stronger recovery possibly stretching toward the end of 2026 and into 2027 if Bitcoin rallies. But the capital will not flow evenly.

"Initially, capital would likely gravitate towards established players, which have the scale, the liquidity in their own securities and the track record investors now demand," Kooner said.

He also flagged a timing signal worth watching. A broad wave of new treasury listings would most likely arrive late in a rally, once premiums have widened. "And that timing is itself a warning sign," he added.

The composition of demand has shifted too. Rasmussen noted that most of the largest corporate buyers outside Strategy are now operating businesses adding Bitcoin from cash flow rather than issuing stock — "a smaller source of demand but a healthier one," in his words.

Can ETFs carry the market alone?

Bitcoin does not need a treasury revival to recover, Rasmussen argued. He pointed to $6.4 billion in spot Bitcoin net inflows during Q3 as evidence that other buyers remain active.

Kooner was more cautious. Some ETF activity reflects basis trades that can unwind quickly, he said, and flows reverse. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded around $229 million in net outflows last week, a second consecutive week of net withdrawals, according to SoSoValue data.

"Without corporate buying, the market loses a price-insensitive bid and becomes more dependent on allocators who rebalance with macro conditions," Kooner said.

The practical takeaway: watch the premiums. If established treasuries regain them, share issuance and corporate demand could return well before the market sees a new listing wave — and if that wave arrives, it may signal the rally is already late.