Gemini Retail Trading Volume Hits 3-Year Low of $600 Million

Gemini booked just $600 million in retail trading volume in the third quarter, down 14% quarter-on-quarter and its weakest retail print since Q3 2023. The number sits inside the exchange's own Q3 earnings report, and it landed despite total spot volume rising 18% to $4.5 billion.

The divergence is stark. Institutional volume climbed 26% to $3.9 billion over the same period. Gemini attributed the overall gain to "increased institutional Zcash activity and expanded affiliated market-making." It offered no specific reason for the retail slide.

Revenue told a similar two-sided story. Exchange revenue rose 7% quarter-on-quarter to $13.4 million, with institutional revenue more than doubling. Yet retail traders still supplied nearly three-quarters of that revenue — the segment that shrank hardest remains the one Gemini depends on most.

What does this change for crypto exchanges?

Gemini is not alone. Coinbase reported softer retail and institutional activity in the quarter, with consumer spot trading volume down 9% to $23.4 billion. "Continued growth in prediction markets helped offset softer crypto trading activity," Coinbase chief financial officer Alesia Haas said.

Robinhood showed the same trade-off in sharper relief. Its crypto revenue fell 55% year-on-year to $120 million, while event-contract revenue surged sixfold to $173 million. The pivot is industry-wide: exchanges are rebuilding growth around event contracts rather than spot crypto flow.

Gemini's own prediction business is small but growing fast. Gemini Predicts brought in $796,000 in the quarter, up 52% quarter-on-quarter — not enough to offset declines elsewhere, but directionally clear.

Is the prediction bet working?

Early fourth-quarter data suggests momentum. Average daily prediction traders in October ran roughly 50% above the Q3 average. Nearly a third of new prediction traders were new to Gemini entirely — more than double the Q3 proportion, making the product a genuine acquisition channel rather than a crossover play.

The distribution push goes beyond Gemini's own app. An August nonbinding agreement with Apex Fintech Solutions would make Gemini Titan the exclusive venue for crypto event contracts distributed through Apex's futures brokerage to its brokerage customers. The deal remains subject to definitive agreements.

What comes next

Gemini hosts its Q3 earnings call on Friday, where the retail decline and the Apex arrangement will both draw questions. If October's prediction-market growth holds, the exchange enters Q4 with a thinner but more diversified revenue base — one where institutional Zcash flow and event contracts, not retail spot traders, do the heavy lifting.