House Oversight's Comer urges Congress to curb officials' prediction market trades

House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer has called on Congress to restrict — and possibly ban outright — prediction market trading by government officials, following an investigation that reviewed 1,700 pages of documents. The Kentucky Republican's recommendations, released by the committee on Nov. 13, target federal employees, lawmakers and congressional staff across all three branches of government.

"Congress must consider additional reforms to prevent public corruption and restore the American people's trust in government," Comer said. The committee stopped short of endorsing a single remedy, however; it presented lawmakers with a menu of options rather than binding rules.

What does the committee actually propose?

The investigation examined insider trading risks involving government officials, military personnel and individuals holding security clearances. It drew on 1,700 pages of records and five bipartisan staff briefings — roughly the equivalent of a novel-length document set assembled over several months.

The recommendations fall into two categories:

• Who can trade. A complete prohibition on prediction market activity by officials is one option; narrower restrictions on particular contracts are another.
• Which contracts. Limits on contracts connected to government business, on the theory that public servants should not personally profit from nonpublic information tied to their work.

The committee also urged Congress to push prediction market operators and federal agencies to share the information needed to enforce any restrictions. That is a request, not a mandate; no data-sharing framework currently exists.

How did the investigation unfold?

Comer opened the inquiry on May 22 with document requests to Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan and Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour, covering account verification, geographic restrictions and suspicious trading. He argued internal company records were necessary to identify potential offenders and assess whether operators met their legal obligations.

By Sept. 29, the committee had expanded its requests to Hyperliquid Labs, Crypto.com and Aristotle Exchange, the operator of PredictIt. At that point it reported nearly 1,000 documents received and five briefings from Kalshi and Polymarket representatives. The inquiry also examined whether users could bypass restrictions through offshore platforms — a gap the committee has not claimed to have closed.

What enforcement has already happened?

Regulators and exchanges have not waited for Congress. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced on Aug. 28 that former White House teleprompter operator Gabriel Perez agreed to settle charges that he used advance access to President Donald Trump's remarks to trade presidential mention contracts on Kalshi between December 2025 and February 2026. Those contracts pay out based on whether the president uses particular words or phrases in speeches.

Perez was ordered to disgorge $107,539.02 in profits and pay a $65,000 civil penalty — a total of roughly $172,539, comparable to three times the median U.S. household income. The settlement imposed a three-year trading ban. The CFTC credited KalshiEX with assisting the investigation and said the penalty reflected a substantial cooperation discount.

A separate criminal case cited by the committee involves Army Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who was indicted for allegedly using classified information about the operation to capture former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to earn more than $409,000 through Polymarket wagers. He pleaded not guilty.

Exchanges have taken their own disciplinary action. In April, Kalshi suspended three congressional candidates — identified as Mark Moran, Matt Klein and Ezekiel Enriquez — after finding they traded contracts tied to their own campaigns. Kalshi treated the conduct as exchange rule violations and said the cases did not lead to referrals to the CFTC or the Justice Department.

Does the government already restrict trading?

Partially. The Senate adopted its own prediction market ban by unanimous consent on April 30, amending its standing rules with immediate effect. The resolution, introduced by Republican Sen. Bernie Moreno, covers senators and Senate staff. Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson said she would introduce a parallel House resolution, though no such measure has passed.

Both major operators have publicly welcomed the direction of travel. Polymarket said it supported the Senate restrictions and claimed its terms already prohibited the conduct. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said his company proactively blocked members of Congress and enforced its insider trading rules. Neither claim has been independently verified, and the committee's findings have not detailed how effective platform-level safeguards are in practice.

What happens next?

Comer's recommendations now sit with Congress, which must decide between a full ban and contract-specific limits — a legislative choice with no committee or floor schedule attached. How quickly lawmakers move, if at all, will determine whether federal restrictions match the Senate's existing rule or remain, for now, a set of options on paper.