Justin Sun: Quantum Risk to Crypto Signatures Within Two Years

By Marcus Bennett

TRON founder Justin Sun warned Friday, Nov. 6, that quantum advances could threaten cryptocurrency security “within one to two years,” putting a near-term timetable on a risk to blockchain digital signatures.

Sun said current quantum computers cannot break cryptographic networks. His warning depended on a different class of machine: sufficiently powerful, fault-tolerant quantum computers capable of using Shor’s algorithm to break digital signatures.

That distinction matters. The threat is not an active compromise of Bitcoin or Ethereum. It is a forecast about the arrival of a capability that does not yet exist in the form Sun described.

The timeline also describes fault tolerance, not merely a larger processor. A machine would need to run the relevant algorithm at a scale and reliability capable of challenging live cryptographic systems.

Sun did not identify a working quantum attack or compromised network in the remarks described. The forecast rests on future hardware, not an exploit underway.

The cryptographic threshold

Digital signatures establish authority behind blockchain transactions. Their mathematical foundations are therefore a core security control, not a peripheral technical detail.

Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum rely on signature schemes such as the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA). Under Sun’s scenario, a fault-tolerant quantum computer running Shor’s algorithm could defeat the mathematics protecting those signatures.

The operational consequence would reach beyond cryptography. Signatures authenticate who can move assets, so a working break would undermine transaction authorization on affected networks and require replacement signature systems.

This is a protocol migration, not a cosmetic software update. Networks would need to adopt new cryptography while preserving the validity of existing transactions and account controls.

TRON’s testnet milestone

TRON announced in October that it had made post-quantum cryptography available on its testnet. The technology is designed to resist attacks from powerful quantum computers.

TokenPost previously covered TRON’s testnet announcement. The disclosed milestone concerns testnet availability; the available details specify no algorithm name, mainnet deployment date or migration schedule.

The testnet puts the defensive technology into a testing environment. It does not establish that TRON has completed a mainnet migration, and the announcement gives no coverage target for accounts or transactions.

What does this change for crypto users?

For Bitcoin and Ethereum, there is no disclosed immediate break or active attack. The practical change is that a theoretical risk now carries Sun’s one-to-two-year horizon and a specific technical mechanism.

That horizon is a planning window, not a transaction deadline. Current quantum computers lack the capability Sun described, so the immediate task is to evaluate future signature changes before the threat becomes operational.

Sun’s warning also reaches beyond TRON. In earlier comments, he said AI and quantum risks were “not fully reflected in Bitcoin’s outlook,” linking both technology trends to his assessment of Bitcoin.

No Bitcoin or Ethereum post-quantum test was described in the available details. Those details also provide no public schedule for a signature replacement on either network, so Sun’s comments do not amount to a coordinated industry migration plan.

For users, the practical answer is narrower than the headline. No present quantum break is underway, but Bitcoin and Ethereum would face a signature-security problem if the capability Sun described arrives.

The next checkpoint is Sun’s one-to-two-year window. No public migration deadline has been announced, and the remarks identified no fault-tolerant machine capable of breaking the relevant signatures.