Kalshi Discusses $65 Billion Valuation as CFTC Fights States

Kalshi is negotiating new funding at a $65 billion valuation, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters on November 12. The figure would sit $25 billion above the $40 billion post-money valuation of its Series G round, closed just two weeks earlier. A doubling of worth in a fortnight is unusual; investors have not confirmed the terms, and no closing date is public.

The talks proceed under regulatory pressure from two directions. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission continues to fight state gambling regulators in court, yet it is also scrutinizing Kalshi itself.

What is the CFTC's two-front fight?

On November 12, the CFTC and the United States sued Arkansas to halt its case against Kalshi. The agencies argue that the platform's contracts fall under federal derivatives law, not state gambling statutes. The filing represents a direct federal attempt to preempt state enforcement against a derivatives exchange.

The same agency is examining the exchange it is defending. Politico and Reuters reported that the CFTC had privately warned Kalshi it could face charges over how it notified the agency of new contracts. Kalshi told CNBC the issue was a procedural error involving a handful of contracts, many of which were not live. The company's framing is plausible; it is also self-interested, and the CFTC has not stated its position publicly.

How large is the market?

DeFi Rate recorded roughly $30.4 billion in notional volume across nine prediction-market venues for the period of November 7–12. Kalshi accounted for approximately 78 percent of that figure — nearly four of every five dollars traded. Concentration at that level means the sector's headline growth is, in practice, one platform's growth.

What are the new entrants doing?

Distribution partnerships continue to expand the market's reach. Prospect Markets, a Canadian sports prediction-market company, launched in the United States as an introducing broker on Crypto.com's infrastructure.

A day earlier, Underdog, which operates its own CFTC-registered exchange, agreed to make its contracts available through Plaee. Plaee's clients will be able to offer those contracts under their own brands without registering as exchanges. The structure resembles white-label brokerage: it widens access while shifting the regulatory burden onto the registered entity. Both Crypto.com and Underdog are named in Louisiana's enforcement order against prediction-market operators, a fact neither partnership announcement addressed.

What did Polymarket disclose?

Polymarket reported growth and contraction in the same week. On November 10, the company told CNBC that its annualized revenue had passed $1.8 billion, up from more than $1 billion in June. That figure is a run-rate calculation — annualizing a short period — not full-year audited revenue. The distinction matters: run rates in fast-moving betting markets can fall as quickly as they rise.

The next day, Polymarket confirmed job cuts and the end of contractor agreements. The company said the reorganization followed leadership changes and also included new hires. It did not disclose how many positions were affected, a omission worth noting given the simultaneous revenue announcement.

What comes next

Three unresolved threads define the near term: the federal suit against Arkansas, the CFTC's private warning to Kalshi, and Louisiana's order naming Crypto.com and Underdog. Court rulings on federal preemption will determine whether state bans hold, and the CFTC's next move against Kalshi — or its silence — should clarify whether the notification dispute becomes a formal action.