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Kalshi Winds Down Volume Incentive Program as Wash-Trading Questions Mount
Kalshi filed with the CFTC to end its volume incentive program by Oct. 13, nearly a year early, amid scrutiny of trading in its Ethereum perpetual futures markets.
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Kalshi told the CFTC its Volume Incentive Program will terminate no earlier than Oct. 13, nearly a year ahead of its scheduled Oct. 1, 2027 end date.
A replacement Deposit and Trading Reward Incentive Program allows targeted promotions of up to $2,500 per participant, capped at $5,000 per person over two years.
Reuters reported Kalshi is in advanced talks to raise about $1 billion at a roughly $40 billion valuation, nearly double its May valuation of $22 billion.
Kalshi will terminate its trader-volume incentive program nearly a year ahead of schedule, according to a Sept. 28 filing with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, a decision that arrives as the exchange faces scrutiny over trading patterns in its crypto perpetual futures markets.
The filing sets Oct. 13 as the earliest end date for the Volume Incentive Program, which had been scheduled to run until Oct. 1, 2027. Kalshi retained discretion to end the program under its terms, and the filing does not link the termination to any specific concern or explain the acceleration.
The decision comes as Kalshi confronts questions over activity in its perpetual futures markets. The CFTC has reportedly examined trading after researchers identified repetitive transactions around fixed dollar amounts, including roughly $5,500 in Ethereum perpetuals. Kalshi has said it is not under investigation and has rejected allegations of wash trading. The exchange attributes the repeated transactions to market makers posting fixed-size quotes that other traders repeatedly hit.
The program, designed to deepen activity on Kalshi's central limit order book, allowed the exchange to designate eligible markets and fund fixed reward pools. Traders received a share based on their proportion of eligible volume, with event-contract rewards capped at half a cent per contract per participant. Perpetual futures were eligible and exempt from the program's standard 3-cent to 97-cent qualifying price range.
Days before filing to terminate the volume program, Kalshi submitted a replacement framework to the CFTC. The regulator's docket lists the Deposit and Trading Reward Incentive Program as received Sept. 25, with Sept. 28 as the earliest effective date. The two filings do not formally describe the new program as a successor, and they can overlap before the older program winds down.
The new structure gives Kalshi considerably more flexibility. Instead of distributing a fixed pool by volume share, the exchange can run time-limited promotions of three to 90 days tied to deposits, trading activity, or both. It can target traders by account age, funding status, prior activity, inactivity, geography, and past participation in specific contract categories. Individual promotions can pay up to $2,500 per participant, with total rewards capped at $5,000 per person over the program's planned two-year life. Categories eligible for incentives include crypto, sports, economics, financials, politics, weather and entertainment.
The new filing also tightens language around abusive trading. Transactions under inquiry for potential self-matching, wash trading, prearranged trading or other prohibited practices would be excluded from promotional rewards. Kalshi said its surveillance staff will apply heightened monitoring to incentive recipients and can terminate eligibility or pursue disciplinary action.
The incentive overhaul lands despite record volume. Data compiled by DeFiRate shows Kalshi handled a record $3.24 billion on Sept. 27, with weekly volume of $15.66 billion in the seven days through that date. Its share of tracked prediction-market volume stood near 80%, up sharply from a year earlier.
Investor appetite is tracking that growth. Reuters reported, citing people familiar with the talks, that Kalshi is in advanced discussions to raise about $1 billion at a valuation of roughly $40 billion, with Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management discussing leading the round and Tiger Global and Dragoneer Investment Group considering participation. A deal at that price would nearly double the $22 billion valuation Kalshi secured in May's $1 billion round. Reuters also reported preliminary discussions about a future initial public offering.
As Kalshi pitches a valuation closer to established financial-market operators, investors will have to weigh how much of its rising activity reflects durable demand and how much depends on incentives the exchange itself creates. The volume program's termination on or after Oct. 13 will provide an early, observable test of that distinction.
via reuters.com (Original)
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Staff writer covering marketplaces and e-commerce at Mempool Brief.
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