Metaplanet Cuts 2026 Revenue Forecast 59% to $41.4 Million

Metaplanet cut its 2026 revenue forecast by roughly 59% to $41.4 million in third-quarter results published this week, scaling back a projection that had stood near $102 million. The Tokyo-listed company, one of Asia's largest corporate bitcoin holders, also reported 44,000 BTC on its balance sheet as of Sept. 30 — up 1,000 BTC from June 30.

The revenue reduction is the sharper of two guidance cuts. Metaplanet lowered its full-year operating profit forecast to $19.11 million, down from $72.61 million previously. Both revisions landed alongside quarterly numbers that show a company whose treasury strategy and its income statement are pulling in different directions.

What did the nine-month numbers show?

For the first nine months of 2026, Metaplanet recorded $37.55 million in revenue, a 30.5% increase year over year. Operating profit came in at $22.14 million, up 26.5% from the same period a year earlier. On the operating line, the business grew at a healthy clip.

The bottom line tells a different story. The company posted a net loss of roughly $173 million for the nine-month period, swinging from a profit in the same window last year. The gap between operating profit and net loss sits almost entirely in nonoperating items tied to bitcoin valuation and sales.

Metaplanet disclosed about $122 million in losses from bitcoin sales within that net figure. In other words, the company sold portions of its treasury at prices that crystallized substantial losses, and those sales outweighed everything the operating business earned during the period.

The arithmetic in the new guidance is stark. The revised full-year revenue target of $41.4 million sits only about $3.9 million above the $37.55 million the company has already booked through nine months. The operating profit forecast of $19.11 million is below the $22.14 million already recorded — implying the company expects operating results over the final quarter to subtract from, not add to, the year's total.

How does the bitcoin treasury fit in?

Metaplanet's holdings grew to 44,000 BTC as of Sept. 30, a net increase of 1,000 BTC over the quarter. The company measures accretion to holders through its "BTC Yield" metric, which came in at 11.3% for the quarter. That metric tracks the rate at which bitcoin holdings per share or per unit of capital increase, separate from bitcoin's market price.

The quarter's results capture the operational tension in Metaplanet's model: the treasury grew, operating revenue and profit rose year over year, yet realized bitcoin sales losses of roughly $122 million pushed the company deep into a net loss. Whether the remaining 44,000 BTC position appreciates or pressures results further will shape the 2027 outlook, which the company has yet to publish alongside these revised targets.