Mougayar Model Values Ethereum's Economic Footprint at $5.7 Trillion

Early Ethereum investor William Mougayar estimates that Ethereum supports roughly $5.7 trillion in economic value, according to the second edition of his annual report that treats the network as infrastructure rather than a standalone asset. Under his framework, Ether's approximately $246 billion market capitalization represents just 4.3% of that total.

Mougayar, a longtime Ethereum backer, built the model to compare ETH with the activity and assets constructed around the network. The report divides the $5.7 trillion estimate into three components: ecosystem value, flow value and what he calls "trust surplus."

How does the model break down?

The ecosystem portion stands at about $127 billion. It covers assets and companies built around Ethereum, capturing the direct economic activity layered on top of the base protocol.

Flow value is the largest bucket at an estimated $3 trillion. Mougayar ties this figure mainly to stablecoins and to roughly $70 trillion in annual flows that depend on the network for settlement and transfer.

The third component, trust surplus, accounts for another $2.6 trillion. Mougayar defines this as estimated savings in custody, reconciliation, settlement delays and counterparty risk compared with traditional financial systems. Together the three components reconcile to the headline $5.7 trillion figure.

What valuation does the comparison produce?

To translate the framework into a value for ETH itself, Mougayar draws on a comparison with internet companies. He notes that such firms capture 10% to 20% of the economic value they create. Applying the 15% midpoint of that range to Ethereum's supported value yields an ETH valuation of approximately $7,000.

That figure equals roughly 3.5 times ETH's price at the time of the estimate. Mougayar explicitly says the $7,000 number is not a price target and not a forecast. It functions instead as an output of his capture-ratio assumption, one that shifts directly with whatever percentage an analyst chooses to apply.

The structure of the argument matters more than any single output. By anchoring network value to measurable quantities — $70 trillion in annual flows, $127 billion in ecosystem assets, $246 billion in market capitalization — Mougayar attempts a fundamentals-based reading of Ethereum comparable to how analysts value payment rails or exchanges rather than currencies.

The framework's sensitivity cuts both ways. The trust-surplus estimate of $2.6 trillion rests on counterfactual savings against legacy custody and settlement costs, a figure that resists direct verification. Flow value depends on how much of the $70 trillion in annual activity genuinely requires Ethereum rather than merely passing through it.

Mougayar has now published the report twice as an annual series, signaling an intent to track whether the supported-value ratio tightens or widens over time. If ETH's market capitalization grows faster than the $5.7 trillion estimate, the implied capture ratio rises toward the 15% midpoint he borrows from internet-sector analogies.