MSCI's Nov. 11 index decision puts Strategy, Metaplanet at risk

Roughly $2.8 billion in potential stock outflows faces Strategy if MSCI removes it from the Global Investable Market Indexes, according to JPMorgan analysts’ previous estimates. MSCI will publish its final November review list on Nov. 11, deciding whether Strategy and Metaplanet are removed from the indexes.

Both companies appeared on MSCI’s preliminary deletion list after the provider approved new eligibility rules for companies whose assets are held primarily for investment rather than used in operating businesses. Any deletion would take effect after the market close on Nov. 30, with index-tracking funds required to adjust their holdings following the effective date.

What happens on Nov. 11?

Under the framework, a company must first fail an operating-assets test and then fail at least four of five additional financial screens to become ineligible. MSCI evaluates operating assets, expenses, cash flow, changes in asset valuations and dependence on external financing.

The sequence makes the operating-assets test a gate. A company cannot reach the additional four-of-five financial test without first failing that initial requirement. The financial screens then examine both the cost of running the business and its reliance on outside funding.

Existing index constituents generally must fail the tests across two consecutive annual assessments before removal. That means a first failed assessment does not by itself produce removal for a company already in the indexes.

Strategy, the largest crypto treasury firm, holds $62.9 billion worth of Bitcoin and has challenged MSCI’s proposed classification. It argues that its software business and Bitcoin treasury operations make it “an operating company rather than an investment fund.” The final Nov. 11 list will determine whether its index status changes.

How does MSCI decide eligibility?

MSCI’s initial assessment, based on May 2026 data, identified Strategy, Metaplanet and UK uranium investment company Yellow Cake as potential deletions. The preliminary list therefore placed two Bitcoin-focused companies alongside an investment company focused on uranium.

For Strategy, JPMorgan’s estimate concerns sales of stock by passive funds rebalancing their portfolios, not the liquidation of Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings. A deletion would require index trackers to bring their portfolios into line with MSCI’s indexes, separating benchmark-driven share selling from treasury-management decisions.

Operationally, the revision changes what passive portfolios must own once an index provider decides a listed vehicle no longer qualifies as an operating company. The adjustment would follow the index change, not a voluntary decision by the company to sell bitcoin or reduce its balance sheet.

That makes the review a test of corporate structure and cash generation, not just the scale of assets held. For Strategy, the operational issue is whether MSCI treats the software operation and the bitcoin treasury as parts of one operating business. For the funds, the issue is mechanical portfolio conformity.

The wider significance is procedural. MSCI is changing which listed companies qualify for global indexes, and the portfolio consequence runs through funds that track those benchmarks rather than through a requirement imposed directly on the companies’ corporate treasuries.

MSCI has not yet issued the final outcome. The next fixed dates are Nov. 11, when the provider decides whether Strategy and Metaplanet are removed, and Nov. 30, when any deletions take effect after the close and index-tracking funds must adjust their holdings.