Polymarket Confirms Layoff Email as Kalshi Takes 73% Market Share

Polymarket confirmed on November 11 that a screenshot circulating online showed a genuine company-wide email describing a reduction in force that ended one contractor agreement effective November 4. A source said the email went only to contractors, not full-time employees, contradicting viral posts claiming the platform had cut 30% of its workforce after the midterm elections.

One November 4 post alleged the 30% figure outright. A November 7 follow-up repeated the claim and stated that "laptops, email, and building access were cut on the spot." Polymarket did not confirm those details.

The cuts hit the marketing team hardest. Matthew Modabber, the former chief marketing officer and a longtime friend of CEO Shayne Coplan, was fired in October after an internal investigation. His team stood accused of building a fake website resembling Polymarket, where paid influencers allegedly recorded videos showing trades that never happened.

Coplan initially opposed the firing, but the board reportedly believed Modabber could damage the company's plans to go public. Former Uber executive Travis VanderZanden has since taken over marketing as chief growth officer.

Why is Polymarket reorganizing now?

Polymarket framed the job cuts as part of a broader restructuring tied to growth. "As we've grown and brought on new leadership, we've reorganized to set the company up for its next phase of growth, which has meant a lot of new hires, changes in personnel and letting some people go," a spokesperson said in an emailed statement.

The senior bench has filled out quickly:

• Former Amazon CFO Warren Jenson joined in September as the company's first finance chief.
• Former Goldman Sachs executive Lisa Mantil joined to attract large financial firms.
• Former Meta executive Malea Otranto took over trust and safety.

Two sources said the company wants to improve its governance ahead of a possible stock market listing as early as 2027.

How far behind Kalshi has Polymarket fallen?

Kalshi now handles 73% of all prediction market trading, compared with roughly 18% for Polymarket, according to a report from Predicted cited by Front Office Sports. Kalshi has also signed major partnerships, including one tied to the FIFA World Cup. In late October it raised $1 billion in a round led by Sequoia and Wellington, reaching a $40 billion valuation.

Polymarket's own revenue is still climbing. On November 10, the company told CNBC its revenue had reached an annual pace above $1.8 billion, up from more than $1 billion in June. Most of that growth came from its regulated US platform, which reopened in December 2025 after nearly four years out of the American market.

The company is close to raising another $1 billion in a round led by Donald Trump Jr.'s 1789 Capital, which would value it at roughly $21 billion, sources said. Intercontinental Exchange, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, has invested more than $1.6 billion and holds about 14% of the company — worth around $2 billion as of September 30, per an SEC filing.

"It's not like a struggle for cash or something," one source said of the layoffs.

What regulatory questions remain?

The reorganization unfolds against an active enforcement backdrop. Reuters reported that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating whether Polymarket violated a 2022 agreement requiring it to block US users from its main overseas platform. Polymarket is based in New York but also operates a separate company registered in Panama.

The international platform has drawn criticism over some listed markets. Polymarket recently removed a market letting users predict whether men accused of raping a Cornell University student would face felony charges. In April, the US Justice Department charged a soldier accused of using private information to bet on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. In May, prosecutors charged a Google engineer who allegedly made more than $1.2 million betting on 2025's most searched person.

The CFTC probe and the 2027 listing window now define the operational timeline Polymarket must clear.