Trump’s Truth Social Posts Still Move Markets, Less Persistently

By Daniel Okafor

An Axios review of 269 Iran-related posts by President Donald Trump found an average five-minute futures move of 0.73% after publication, compared with a 0.2% average five-minute move overall. Coinedition’s comparison of major 2025 and 2026 messages finds that Trump’s social-media power still produces immediate repricing across Bitcoin, equities, oil and Treasuries, while the durability of those moves depends more on what follows.

What did the February 2025 tariff threat trigger?

Trump announced on Feb. 1, 2025, on Truth Social that he was imposing 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, plus an additional 10% levy on Chinese goods. The post came after U.S. stock markets closed, while cryptocurrency markets continued trading.

Bitcoin fell below $100,000 and touched approximately $91,442 on Feb. 2 as investors priced the risk of a wider trade conflict.

When Wall Street reopened on Feb. 3, the S&P 500 closed 0.76% lower. The broad dollar index rose 0.49%, the 10-year Treasury yield declined four basis points to 4.54%, and WTI crude closed 0.9% higher.

Trump also agreed that day to delay the Mexican tariffs for one month following discussions with Mexico. Bitcoin recovered from its weekend low as uncertainty about immediate implementation eased.

How did the proposed crypto reserve post lift tokens?

On March 2, 2025, Trump said a proposed U.S. crypto reserve would “include $XRP, Solana, and Cardano,” then added Bitcoin and Ether at 12:11 p.m. ET. By late afternoon, Bitcoin had gained about 10% to $94,000, $XRP had risen 32%, and Solana was up 26%.

The rally concentrated in the assets Trump named, demonstrating how quickly presidential messaging could reprice exposed markets before a formal reserve framework existed.

What changed after the Greenland and Iran threats?

On Jan. 17, 2026, Trump threatened 10% tariffs on eight European countries over the dispute surrounding Greenland, with the proposed rate scheduled to rise to 25% in June. The Saturday post preceded Jan. 20, the first U.S. cash session after the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday.

During that session, the S&P 500 fell 2.06%, Bitcoin lost more than 3%, and the broad dollar index declined 0.53%. The 10-year Treasury yield rose six basis points to 4.30%, while WTI crude gained 1.5%.

The reaction reversed the next day. At 2:37 p.m. ET on Jan. 21, Trump said “a framework agreement on Greenland had been reached” and the planned tariffs would not proceed. The S&P 500 subsequently extended its gains to 1.4%, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell 4.2 basis points.

On Aug. 19, 2026, Trump threatened economic retaliation against countries supporting Iran. In the following session, Brent crude rose 2.4% and WTI crude gained 2.3%.

Why are the reactions becoming less durable?

The Axios analysis found the effect diminishing over time as traders became more selective, distinguishing online announcements from signed orders, actual tariff implementation and physical supply changes. Trump retains headline power, but whether a post creates a lasting trend increasingly depends on what happens next.

For market participants, the practical test is no longer the post alone. Tariff messaging changes expectations for trade and conflict, reserve messaging changes how named digital assets are priced, and Iran-related threats alter expectations for energy supply. Concrete implementation now carries more weight in determining whether the initial move persists.