Bitcoin Slides Below Short-Term Holder Cost Basis as Stablecoins Contract

Bitcoin traded near $74,000 on Nov. 11, sitting below the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis of roughly $75,600, while stablecoin supply contracted by $14.2 billion over the 30 days through Nov. 9 — the sharpest decline in that category since June 2022. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs compounded the picture, recording $1.6 billion in net outflows across the 20 trading sessions ending Nov. 9.

The price reading came at 6 a.m. ET (11:00 UTC) on Nov. 11. The $75,600 benchmark estimates the average price paid for coins acquired during the previous 155 days, the window used to define a short-term holder. Only about 35% of the coins in that cohort were in profit at the Nov. 11 price level.

For practitioners, the cost-basis breach matters because it marks the point at which recent entrants, on average, are underwater. When roughly two-thirds of a 155-day cohort sits at a loss, the marginal seller is more likely to be a capitulating recent buyer than a long-term holder with substantial gains.

What does the stablecoin contraction signal?

Stablecoins are crypto assets designed to maintain a stable value, and their aggregate supply functions as a rough proxy for dollar-denominated liquidity available to the market. A $14.2 billion contraction over one month is not a rounding error; against the scale of recent ETF flows, it represents a materially larger withdrawal of potential buying power than the fund outflows recorded over the same stretch.

Glassnode, the on-chain analytics firm, offered a direct interpretation. "A shrinking supply means holders are redeeming stablecoins for dollars and taking that cash out of the market," the firm wrote.

The source data itself carries a caveat worth keeping in view: the supply total alone does not identify where the redeemed tokens went, nor does it quantify precisely how much cash exited crypto. The contraction establishes direction, not a full ledger of destination.

Are the ETF outflows and the stablecoin decline connected?

The honest answer is that the data does not establish causation in either direction. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $1.6 billion in net outflows across 20 trading sessions through Nov. 9. The stablecoin contraction ran on a separate 30-day window ending the same day. The two measures track different parts of the market — fund flows capture net movement into or out of regulated vehicles, while stablecoin supply measures the value of a distinct asset category.

Taken together, the figures point to softer demand and thinner liquidity. Taken separately, neither one explains the other. Roughly $1 billion in ETF withdrawals over the prior two weeks had already accompanied cooling demand before the Nov. 11 readings added the fuller 20-session total.

How are large holders behaving?

The distribution picture is mixed rather than uniformly defensive. Wallets holding between 100 and 10,000 BTC accumulated over the week preceding the readings, while other wallet groups continued reducing their holdings. In other words, one band of larger holders bought while the broader cohort sold — a divergence that often precedes a settling of price rather than a decisive direction.

Reporting windows also differ across the measures, which limits clean comparison. The price snapshot is from Nov. 11, while both the stablecoin and ETF totals run through Nov. 9. Any daily reconciliation between these series will carry at least a two-day gap.

What does this change for market participants?

Three operational readouts stand out. First, the short-term holder cohort is loss-heavy, which historically shifts the seller profile toward recent buyers. Second, stablecoin redemption at a pace unmatched since June 2022 removes dollar liquidity faster than ETF outflows alone would suggest. Third, accumulation by 100–10,000 BTC wallets signals that at least one segment of larger holders is absorbing supply.

The near-term reference points are concrete: whether Bitcoin reclaims the $75,600 short-term holder cost basis, and whether the stablecoin supply curve flattens or keeps contracting through the remainder of November.