Deutsche Bank Adds January Hike, Sees Fed Rates at 4.50%–4.75% as Crypto ETFs Bleed

Deutsche Bank now expects the Federal Reserve to deliver three consecutive quarter-point rate hikes by March 2027, taking the federal funds target range to 4.50%–4.75%, according to a research note issued after October's hotter-than-expected inflation report and reported by Reuters on Nov. 10.

The revision adds a January move to the bank's previous call for December and March hikes. Starting from the current 3.75%–4.00% range, three 25-basis-point steps would produce 4.00%–4.25% after December, 4.25%–4.50% after January and 4.50%–4.75% after March, if the Fed follows that sequence. The implied tightening totals 75 basis points — roughly three-quarters of a percentage point of additional cost on floating-rate exposure within a single quarter's span of meetings.

A half-point December move remains outside the central forecast. Reuters reported that Deutsche Bank did not rule out a larger step after comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who raised the possibility of a 50-basis-point move if inflation stayed strong, but the bank continued to favor a smaller increment. The Federal Open Market Committee has yet to make those decisions; the forecast reflects the bank's economists, not settled policy.

What does the inflation data show?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, against a 0.3% consensus among economists polled by Reuters and following September's 0.6% gain. Core prices, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% for a third consecutive month. Shelter costs climbed 0.3% and accounted for more than 30% of the overall monthly gain. Food rose 0.5% and energy advanced 0.7%.

The release contained no annual headline or core reading because the agency lacked October 2025 comparison data following last year's government shutdown. The November CPI report is scheduled for Dec. 10 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern — one day after the Fed's Dec. 8–9 meeting, which also carries updated economic projections. October therefore stands as the final monthly CPI report available before that decision.

How are crypto funds responding?

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.28 billion in net withdrawals during Nov. 2–6, while Ether funds lost $365.2 million, per Farside data — a combined $1.65 billion outflow in the first November trading week. BlackRock's IBIT accounted for roughly $1.21 billion of the Bitcoin outflows. Fidelity's FBTC took in $93.1 million over the same window, showing that investor behavior diverged across funds even as the category finished deeply negative.

Bitcoin traded near $73,784 at a Nov. 10 snapshot, down roughly 1% over 24 hours and 4.5% on the week, after falling below $74,000 on the inflation release.

Ryan Kirkley, co-founder and CEO of Global Settlement Network, said institutional allocations continue to depend on liquidity, monetary policy and portfolio decisions, and cautioned against treating one positive session as proof that selling had ended. Andreja Cobeljic, head of derivatives trading at AMINA Bank, identified renewed Ether ETF buying as a demand signal, while distinguishing ETF subscriptions from futures positioning, which can reflect arbitrage rather than a directional bet.

What does this change for traders?

Bitget Wallet analysts said the selloff removed speculative excess but still lacks the spot buying needed for a durable recovery. They marked $73,000–$74,000 as support and tied stabilization to more balanced derivatives positioning and sustained positive ETF flows; reclaiming $80,000 would signal stronger demand, while a decisive break below $73,000 could expose $68,000.

CoinShares managing director Marc des Ligneris described continued caution in the options market: "investors are still paying up to hedge."

The next test arrives on Dec. 8–9, when the FOMC decision and updated projections land a day before the November CPI print.