Polymarket Prices December Fed Hike at 85% After Hot CPI Print

Polymarket traders put an 85% probability on a quarter-point Federal Reserve rate hike in December, according to the platform's contract pricing on Nov. 10. Bets on an even larger move pushed the combined chance of tighter policy to roughly 97.7%, hours after October's hotter-than-expected inflation report.

The prediction market had generated approximately $22.6 million in trading volume when checked. Shares backing the quarter-point outcome were offered at 85 cents, while the larger-hike contract showed a 12.7-cent offer. Winning shares redeem for $1 after resolution, according to the market's trading description.

Traders gave unchanged rates just a 2.9% chance. Each rate-cut outcome traded below 1%.

How the Polymarket contract breaks down

The two hike outcomes are separate contracts. The 85% figure describes a 25-basis-point move specifically. A distinct contract for a hike of at least 50 basis points stood at 12.7%, bringing combined hike probabilities to approximately 97.7%.

The latest quarter-point reading sits below the 87% cited in an earlier report, suggesting some migration toward the larger-move contract after the inflation release.

What does the futures market say?

CME FedWatch and Polymarket offer two separate windows on Fed expectations. CME draws its probabilities from 30-day federal funds futures prices, while Polymarket runs contracts on the decision itself.

Following the inflation release, The Wall Street Journal reported at 13:53 UTC that CME pricing showed roughly a 90% chance of a quarter-point hike and a 10% chance of a half-point move. Compared with that snapshot, Polymarket assigned about five percentage points less to the quarter-point outcome and 2.7 points more to a hike of at least half a point. The readings came at different times, so they don't represent a simultaneous comparison.

A Reuters poll conducted Nov. 6–10 found all 101 economists surveyed expected a quarter-point December hike, taking the target range to 4%–4.25%. That consensus was unchanged from the previous month. The unanimous forecast for the smaller move contrasts with the larger-hike probability visible in both trading markets.

Waller signals openness to a half-point move

Fed Governor Christopher Waller had backed further tightening even before the inflation report. In a Nov. 10 speech in London, he said he would support a quarter-point December hike even if October inflation improved.

He went further on the risk of another firm core reading. If monthly core CPI stayed around 0.3% or higher, Waller said a half-point hike should be considered at the December meeting.

Explaining his support for October's pause, Waller said earlier Fed communication had already led markets to price in tightening, and policymakers still needed to deliver the anticipated hikes within a reasonable period.

October CPI beat forecasts across the board

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, following a 0.6% gain in September. Core prices, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% for a third consecutive month.

Economists had expected headline prices to rise 0.3% and core prices to climb 0.2%, according to Reuters. Both measures exceeded forecasts by 0.1 percentage point, even though the headline monthly pace slowed from September.

Shelter costs rose 0.3% and accounted for more than 30% of the monthly headline gain, the bureau said. Food prices climbed 0.5%. Energy prices rose 0.7%.

The release did not provide annual headline or core inflation rates. The October 2025 government shutdown interrupted collection of the comparison data.

Bitcoin traded at $74,540.70, down 0.2% over 24 hours and 3.9% over seven days, according to CoinGecko. Its daily range ran from $73,586.83 to $75,476.89.

A decision that lands before the next CPI reading

The Fed's final scheduled policy meeting of the year runs Dec. 8–9, with an updated Summary of Economic Projections. The BLS calendar puts November's consumer price report on Dec. 10 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time — meaning the Fed decides before the next inflation print arrives, leaving traders to price December's move off October's data alone.