Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated prediction markets exchange, is in advanced talks to raise approximately $1 billion at a valuation of roughly $40 billion, according to people familiar with the discussions. Tiger Global Management and Dragoneer Investment Group are among the prospective investors.

If the round closes at those terms, the valuation would mark an 82% increase from the $22 billion Kalshi commanded during its Series F just weeks ago, a round led by Coatue Management. Existing investors, including Sequoia Capital, may lead the new financing alongside Wellington Management. The deal could close within the coming weeks.

A Third Billion-Dollar Raise in Seven Months

The round would be Kalshi's third raise of $1 billion or more in roughly seven months, an unusually rapid capital cadence for a private company. The firm raised $300 million at a $5 billion valuation in October 2025, followed by $1 billion at an $11 billion valuation in December 2025, and another $1 billion at $22 billion in May 2026.

Should the current talks conclude as expected, Kalshi will have raised more than $3 billion in private capital in under a year.

The pace reflects the underlying volume growth. Annualized trading volume tripled to $178 billion in the six months leading up to the May raise, up from $52 billion, according to figures reported around that financing. Institutional trading volume surged 800% over the same period, and annualized revenue now exceeds $1.5 billion. The platform accounts for more than 90% of US prediction market activity.

Institutional Access as the Structural Advantage

Kalshi's regulatory status under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is central to that trajectory. Because the exchange operates within a designated regulatory framework, hedge funds and asset managers can trade event contracts without triggering compliance objections. The 800% surge in institutional volume suggests sophisticated participants increasingly treat event contracts as a legitimate instrument for hedging and speculation rather than a novelty product.

The company, founded by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, allows users to trade contracts on real-world outcomes spanning elections, weather, and sports. Both founders retain significant ownership stakes that place them among billionaires on paper at current valuations.

Retail sports markets have served as a particular catalyst, providing a consumer-facing use case that drives volume and brand recognition beyond the traditional finance community.

Competitive and Regulatory Friction

Kalshi's dominance has not come without resistance. The company continues to navigate a patchwork of state-level rules that vary sharply by jurisdiction, and it has faced regulatory challenges in several states. Its position as a regulated venue is also the core of its competitive pitch against offshore, crypto-based rivals such as Polymarket, which attracted significant attention during the 2024 US presidential election but operates outside US regulatory frameworks.

At a $40 billion valuation, Kalshi would be worth more than many publicly traded exchanges — a comparison that will sharpen scrutiny of how private markets price growth-stage companies against listed peers with comparable infrastructure footprints.

The transaction has not closed, and terms could still shift in final negotiations. A signed agreement within weeks would extend an already compressed fundraising timeline and set a new benchmark for valuations across the event-contracts sector, where regulated venues are competing for institutional order flow.