Kalshi is closing in on a roughly $1 billion funding round that would value the New York-based prediction market at about $40 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. The round is expected to be the company's final private financing before a potential public listing that could come as early as 2027.

Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management are among the key backers in the round, and Kalshi is reportedly in talks with Tiger Global and Dragoneer Investment Group. Wellington's participation carries particular weight: the institutional asset manager typically underwrites public-market theses, signaling that investors are now evaluating Kalshi as a listed company rather than a venture-stage bet.

How fast has the valuation climbed?

The new round would mark the third major repricing of Kalshi in under a year. In December 2025, the company carried an $11 billion valuation. A Series F round in May 2026 raised $1 billion and lifted that figure to $22 billion. The deal now nearing completion would push the valuation to roughly $40 billion — a near-quadrupling in about a year.

The multiples rest on operational data. Kalshi's trading volumes grew from $52 billion to $178 billion over six months, and its revenue run-rate passed $2 billion in mid-2026. The company reportedly operates at a gross margin of approximately 90%, a profile closer to an exchange or software business than a sportsbook.

What is driving the volume?

Sports contracts account for around 65-70% of Kalshi's trading volume. Users trade on game outcomes through a market format rather than placing a traditional sportsbook wager, with the trading price reflecting the crowd's estimate of an outcome's probability.

Kalshi operates as a regulated contract market overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. That federal status anchors its positioning as a financial exchange rather than a gambling operator, and it has been central to the company's pitch since its founding. The regulatory debate over prediction markets remains unsettled, particularly around sports event contracts, which sit closest to territory that state gambling regulators have historically claimed.

What does this mean for a public listing?

For investors, the central issue is concentration. With sports contracts generating most trading volume, a large share of a $40 billion valuation depends on regulators continuing to permit sports event contracts under the CFTC framework. Any future S-1 filing would need to address that dependence in detail as a material risk factor.

CEO Tarek Mansour has indicated a listing is under consideration, though in June 2026 he ruled out going public this year. That timeline leaves a 2027 window as the earliest realistic target, and the round now closing would give the company the capital cushion to reach it without another private markup.

The near-term variable to watch is regulatory: if the CFTC or Congress moves to clarify the treatment of sports event contracts before Kalshi files, the disclosure calculus for a $40 billion debut changes substantially.