Morgan Stanley and Oliver Wyman project tokenized real-world assets will reach $2.3 trillion in value by 2030, according to a base-case forecast highlighted by The Defiant.

The projection attributes roughly $1.7 trillion of the expected total to collateral mobility use cases. Reserve and treasury management applications contribute an additional $400 billion to the base case, with the remaining $200 billion implied across other categories the summary does not enumerate.

What does the $2.3 trillion figure cover?

The base case splits the total between two named operational categories. Collateral mobility, the larger segment at approximately $1.7 trillion, refers to moving tokenized assets between counterparties to settle loans, margin calls and repo transactions. Reserve and treasury management, at $400 billion, covers corporate and financial-institution holdings of tokenized cash equivalents and short-duration instruments.

The remaining $200 billion sits outside those two categories, suggesting additional use cases the firms have not publicly itemized in the summary available to press.

Why are Wall Street consultancies publishing tokenization estimates?

Sell-side research desks and strategy consultancies have increased their publication of tokenization market-sizing work as banks and asset managers expand recurring tokenized issuance. Forecasts of this kind function as institutional benchmarks for custody providers, blockchain networks and tokenization platforms evaluating capital expenditure, partner selection and product roadmaps.

A $2.3 trillion headline number also gives executives a reference point when committing technology budgets and negotiating with infrastructure vendors.

What assumptions sit behind the projection?

Base-case forecasts of this size typically assume steady regulatory clarity, functioning cross-chain settlement and continued adoption by licensed financial institutions. The published summary does not address counterparty risk in tokenized treasury instruments, the redemption mechanics of tokenized money-market vehicles, or the treatment of tokenized collateral in default proceedings.

The summary also does not specify whether the $1.7 trillion collateral-mobility figure assumes interoperability across chains, or whether it concentrates on single-network deployments. Those structural questions remain open across major financial centers.

What shifts if the base case materializes?

A $2.3 trillion tokenized-asset market by 2030 would change the operating economics of secured lending, treasury management and securities servicing. It would compress settlement windows for collateralized transactions, increase always-on usage of corporate treasury balances, and intensify competition among custody banks, distributed-ledger networks and tokenization infrastructure providers chasing the same opportunity.

For collateral mobility specifically, a $1.7 trillion tokenized pool would force buy-side firms to formalize custody, valuation and dispute-resolution processes they have so far handled case by case.

What disclosure gaps remain?

The full methodology, scenario sensitivities and publication date of the underlying report are not included in the summary distributed to press. The firms have not clarified whether the base case includes stablecoins or central bank digital currencies, or only tokenized representations of traditional securities. Institutions evaluating the figure should weigh the headline number against that disclosure gap.

Whether the projection holds depends on regulatory action in major financial centers, the resolution of cross-chain settlement standards, and the willingness of buy-side institutions to hold tokenized instruments on balance sheet over multi-year horizons. The 2030 horizon itself sets a hard benchmark the firms' subsequent updates will be measured against.