Robinhood Misses Q3 Estimates as Event Contracts Overtake Crypto

Robinhood posted third-quarter revenue of $1.42 billion on Tuesday, falling just short of the roughly $1.43 billion Wall Street expected, with earnings of $0.51 per share against a $0.55 consensus and $0.61 a year ago. Net income fell 14% year over year to $476 million, down from $556 million, and 17% from $573 million in the second quarter, per the company's report. Shares, which closed at $94.61, slipped in after-hours trading.

The quarter included a $67 million unrealized loss on Robinhood Ventures Fund I, costing $0.07 per share. Adjusted earnings per share came to $0.60, down 3% from a year ago.

Where is the revenue growth coming from?

Event contracts — the binary bets that pay out $1 on a game, election or economic outcome — generated $173 million, up from $156 million in the second quarter, when they overtook crypto revenue for the first time. Customers traded a record 16.4 billion contracts, more than seven times the volume a year earlier.

"I believe we're at the very beginning of a prediction market supercycle," CEO Vlad Tenev said in December, when Robinhood added NFL player contracts and parlay-style combos that pay only if every leg hits.

Crypto trading revenue rose to $120 million from $100 million in the second quarter, but stayed 55% below the $268 million Robinhood booked in the third quarter of 2025. Customers traded $50 billion in crypto during the quarter, down 38% year over year — $21 billion on the Robinhood app and $29 billion through Bitstamp, the exchange Robinhood acquired.

How is Robinhood Chain performing?

Robinhood Chain went live on July 1 as a layer-2 network running on top of Ethereum. Its first weeks were driven by meme coins rather than the tokenized stocks it was built for. By the end of August, the chain had earned roughly $3.13 million in fees over 30 days, outpacing Ethereum at $2.47 million and Base at $2.89 million.

Hours before the earnings release, Robinhood announced a deal with Ripple bringing RLUSD, a dollar-pegged stablecoin with a market value above $2.5 billion, to Robinhood Chain and Bitstamp, with an in-app rollout planned later this year. Ripple will also supply Robinhood's treasury software and lending for Bitstamp traders.

What happens next?

Robinhood narrowed its 2026 guidance for adjusted operating expenses and stock-based pay to $2.675 billion–$2.75 billion, trimming the top end from the $2.675 billion–$2.775 billion range set in July. The stock is down roughly 18% this year and about 37% below its 52-week high of $150.47.

The RLUSD rollout later this year and the chain's pivot from meme-coin activity toward tokenized equities are the operational tests investors will watch into 2026.