Robinhood’s Revenue per Contract Fell as Trading Rose 21%

By Daniel Okafor

Robinhood Markets generated $173 million from event contracts in July through September, more than the $120 million it earned from crypto and about 12% of net revenue. An FM Intelligence analysis published Tuesday found that customer contract volume rose about 21% to 16.4 billion from 13.6 billion, while revenue rose 11% from $156 million.

How much did Robinhood earn per contract?

FM Intelligence calculated that Robinhood earned about 1.05 cents per event contract in the third quarter, down from 1.15 cents in the second quarter and 1.18 cents in the first. Rounding in the figures puts the latest decline between 7% and 9% from the second quarter.

Robinhood was the only retail platform in the review that published both contract counts and event-contract revenue. FM Intelligence therefore treats the ratio as the one public benchmark for brokers pricing the product.

Why did revenue per contract decline?

On Robinhood’s October 27 earnings call, management described a customer-pricing change made after the company took over an exchange with Susquehanna and renamed it Rothera. "We lowered pricing for customers when we bought Rothera," Chief Financial Officer Shiv Verma said.

Verma said the change did not affect Robinhood’s take rate. He later linked the lower rates to what customers traded: Non-sports contracts made up about 30% of activity in the quarter, up from 15% in the second quarter.

The per-contract ratio cannot isolate those forces. Each event contract pays out at most $1, so one bought for a few cents counts the same as one bought near even money. Robinhood reports the number of contracts that changed hands but not their average purchase price.

How much revenue comes from Rothera?

Rothera, a joint venture Robinhood controls with Susquehanna International Group, contributed $28 million of Robinhood’s $173 million in third-quarter event-contract revenue, up from $17 million in the prior quarter. The 1.05-cent figure therefore blends exchange revenue with what Robinhood earns from its own customers and overstates what a retail broker without an exchange could expect.

FM Intelligence strips Rothera out in the full analysis and shows a steeper fall for the rest of the business. It also benchmarks Robinhood’s event-contract revenue against Plus500’s group revenue, using volume estimates from FM Intelligence’s broker volumes tool.

Where will trading flow go?

Verma said Rothera will become Robinhood’s primary exchange, with Crypto.com second, and that most flow should move through the two by early next year. That would concentrate more of Robinhood’s exchange activity inside its Rothera venture or its Crypto.com arrangement.

Robinhood previously drove more than half of Kalshi’s volume after launching event contracts in March 2025, FinanceMagnates.com reported in January. In September, Robinhood took a stake in Crypto.com and its prediction-markets unit, OG. Its quarterly filing says the deal can earn up to 10% of Crypto.com and its affiliates over three years in return for routing orders there.

What is changing in the states?

Robinhood has stopped offering new sports contracts in Nevada, Michigan and Ohio, according to its filing. New taxes on prediction-market revenue in North Carolina and Kentucky take effect January 1. Together, the measures narrow sports-contract availability in three states and add tax obligations in two others.

Who else is expanding?

IG Group agreed to pay up to $1.3 billion for Underdog in July, while Coinbase said its prediction markets passed $200 million in annualized revenue in the third quarter. Those moves add two larger firms to the same product category as Robinhood and underline the growing strategic value of exchange infrastructure.

What should the next quarter show?

FM Intelligence’s full analysis includes revenue per contract with and without Rothera, the sports share implied by management’s comments and a fourth-quarter revenue range of $156 million to $198 million. The immediate tests are the January 1 tax changes in North Carolina and Kentucky and the early-next-year shift of most flow to Rothera and Crypto.com.