Schiff Renews Bitcoin Crash Call as ETFs Bleed $201 Million

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs bled $201 million in net outflows on Nov. 9, extending a five-session stretch that pulled $1.28 billion from the funds between Nov. 2 and Nov. 6. Economist Peter Schiff read the divergence as evidence for his long-running bear case, renewing a crash warning on the same day U.S. equity indexes closed sharply higher.

In a post on X dated Nov. 9, Schiff noted Bitcoin (BTC) traded below $75,000 at the time of writing and said: "There's a short window before the crash." The price figure was a point-in-time observation and does not capture BTC's return across the full stock session. Schiff had issued a similar warning on Nov. 5, urging holders to sell after the midterm elections.

The equity backdrop contrasted with his call, at least for one session. At the 4 p.m. ET (21:00 UTC) close on Nov. 9, the S&P 500 rose 2.3% to 7,549.94, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.7% to 25,253.14. Both indexes gave back part of those gains the following session, falling 0.4% and 0.7% respectively.

Where did the ETF outflows concentrate?

BlackRock's IBIT carried almost the entire withdrawal burden during the Nov. 2-6 window. The fund, the largest spot Bitcoin ETF by assets, accounted for $1.21 billion of the $1.28 billion in net outflows over those five sessions. Fidelity's FBTC moved in the opposite direction, recording $93.1 million in net inflows across the same period.

The concentration matters for market structure. When a single issuer absorbs roughly 95% of outflows in a five-day window, redemption pressure lands on one fund's authorized participants rather than distributing across the wrapper complex. Fidelity's counter-directional inflows suggest the bleeding reflected issuer-specific positioning rather than a uniform exit from the ETF category.

The Nov. 9 data extends the streak to six consecutive sessions of net withdrawals, a run that began at the start of the month. The $1.48 billion cumulative outflow figure across Nov. 2-9 compares with the single-day $201 million print, indicating the pace of withdrawals slowed into the latest session.

Do the flows prove a crash is coming?

They do not. The flow data and the equity rally establish divergence between Bitcoin-linked products and U.S. stocks, but neither the ETF outflows nor Schiff's Nov. 5 post-election warning demonstrate that a Bitcoin crash will follow. Schiff's $75,000 observation captured one moment in a trading day, not the session's full return profile.

The next test for the pattern arrives with the upcoming ETF flow reports, which will show whether BlackRock's IBIT stabilizes after absorbing $1.21 billion in redemptions and whether Fidelity's FBTC sustains its contrarian inflow streak.