U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $134.4 million in net inflows over the first two sessions of October, according to Decrypt's Bitcoin ETF tracker. Thursday's session drew $102.7 million, and Friday added $31.7 million.

The positive start reversed a weak close to September. The funds shed $148.7 million on Sept. 30, ending a nine-session inflow streak that had begun Sept. 17. Despite that final-day outflow, September ranked as the second-best month since October 2025, with $2.65 billion in net inflows, according to SoSoValue data.

Why are flows turning positive in October?

October carries a seasonal reputation among crypto traders as "Uptober" — shorthand for Bitcoin's historically strong performance in the month. Over the past decade, the asset has averaged an 18% gain in October, Stephen Wundke of algorithmic trading firm Algoz told Decrypt.

"Traders feel there is more upside currently than there is downside," Wundke said.

Macro data reinforced the shift. The U.S. economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, and unemployment rose to 4.2%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. After the release, CME FedWatch-tracked odds of an October rate hike fell to 14%, down from 70% earlier in the week. A weaker labor market reduces pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep tightening, a dynamic that historically favors risk assets.

What do the flows mean for the ETF complex?

Cumulative net inflows since the funds launched now stand at $58.1 billion, with total net assets at $101.1 billion, per Decrypt's tracker. Year-to-date inflows remain under $1 billion, however, after heavy outflows earlier in the year — a reminder that the October recovery follows a extended period of distribution.

Bitcoin itself briefly tested $87,173 on Friday, just below its September high of $87,354, before retreating. It changed hands at $84,786 on Saturday morning, down 0.65% over 24 hours, according to CoinGecko.

Skepticism persists on the demand side. Traders on Myriad, a prediction market owned by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, put the probability at 93% that Bitcoin will not set a new all-time high this year.

The next catalysts arrive quickly. September's CPI report is due Oct. 14, and the Federal Reserve's next policy meeting convenes Oct. 28 — two data points that will test whether the October inflow streak can survive a shift in rate expectations.