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Stablecoins Emerge as Hidden Variable in Bessent's Treasury Strategy

GENIUS Act reserve rules tie stablecoin growth to demand for 93-day Treasury bills, aligning with Bessent's shift to short-term borrowing as the Clarity Act faces a September 15 Senate vote.

Outputs

  1. The GENIUS Act restricts U.S. stablecoin reserves to approved assets including Treasuries maturing within 93 days.

  2. Bessent projects the stablecoin market could grow from $300 billion to nearly $4 trillion, potentially lowering borrowing costs.

  3. The Clarity Act faces a September 15 procedural vote in the Senate after passing the House in July 2025.

  4. Circle and Coinbase shares each rose more than 20% last week on regulatory expectations.

  5. Citi Institute projects stablecoins could hold roughly a quarter of outstanding Treasury bills by 2030 in a $4 trillion scenario.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's plan to shift U.S. borrowing toward shorter-dated debt has found an unlikely ally: the Trump administration's stablecoin legislation, The Wall Street Journal reports.

The connection runs through reserve requirements. Under the GENIUS Act, the crypto regulatory law passed last year, dollar-backed stablecoins issued in the U.S. may hold only a narrow set of assets to maintain their peg — including Treasury securities maturing within 93 days. Stablecoin growth therefore creates structural demand for exactly the instruments Bessent wants to emphasize.

Bessent has cited projections that the stablecoin market could expand from roughly $300 billion today to nearly $4 trillion. He has written that such growth "could lower government borrowing costs," according to the Journal.

What did the Treasury actually do?

Last week, the U.S. Treasury announced it would increase buybacks of longer-term bonds. Issuing more short-term Treasury bills can fund those buybacks. Bessent, speaking on CNBC, described the approach as a Treasury twist.

The mechanics compound. Each incremental dollar of stablecoin issuance, under the GENIUS Act's reserve rules, translates into additional demand for bills — precisely the funding tool the buyback program relies on. Brookings Institution analysis found stablecoins could generate substantial new bill demand, particularly from foreign savers in countries with volatile local currencies.

A Citi Institute scenario modeling a $4 trillion stablecoin market projects that stablecoin Treasury bill holdings could represent roughly a quarter of all bills outstanding by 2030.

Why is the Clarity Act stalled?

President Donald Trump hosted crypto industry executives at the White House last week and pressed Congress to pass the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, a broader market-structure framework for crypto. Attendees included Coinbase Global CEO Brian Armstrong, Gemini founders Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, Payward co-CEO Arjun Sethi, and Robinhood Markets CEO Vlad Tenev.

The bill faces a September 15 procedural vote in the Senate, where it has stalled over whether stablecoin reward programs compete with bank deposits. The Senate Banking Committee cleared the legislation in May, and the House passed it in July 2025. The Securities and Exchange Commission separately proposed a new regulatory framework for crypto assets last week.

Markets have already priced in part of the story. Shares of Circle Internet Group and Coinbase Global each rose more than 20% last week on expectations of regulatory progress.

TD Cowen analyst Bryan Bergin wrote in a research note that Clarity Act passage "would reduce friction via greater regulatory certainty." He acknowledged, however, that adoption was advancing even without the law.

Can the stablecoin market deliver the demand?

The macro thesis faces a near-term reality check. The overall stablecoin market has plateaued in recent months and remains little changed from last October, meaning the bill demand Bessent's borrowing strategy assumes has not yet materialized at scale.

The September 15 Senate vote will determine whether the market-structure framework advances this session — and with it, the regulatory clarity that would let stablecoin issuers build the bill portfolios underpinning the Treasury's short-duration funding shift.

via wsj.com (Original)

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Market editor covering business strategy at Mempool Brief.

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