JPMorgan Projects 10% Annualized Bitcoin Returns in First LTCMA Inclusion

JPMorgan Asset Management projects Bitcoin will return 10% annualized over the next decade, outperforming the 7.5% projected for large-cap US stocks and 5.5% for gold. The forecast appears in the bank's 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report, published Monday, and marks the first time JPMorgan has included Bitcoin in the annual outlook covering more than 200 assets.

The headline number comes with an explicit caveat. The report states that Bitcoin's volatility and unstable correlations disqualify it as a portfolio diversifier at current conditions.

"At the moment, we do not make a case for Bitcoin as a diversifier in portfolios due to its unstable market correlations," the report said. "We see Bitcoin as a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing."

How wide is the forecast band?

JPMorgan's scenario range is unusually broad for an asset included in an institutional planning document. The bull case projects 16.6% annualized gains; the bear case projects an 11.2% annualized loss. The spread of nearly 28 percentage points between scenarios dwarfs the bands typically applied to equities or commodities in the same report.

The bank's methodology accounted for Bitcoin's supply growth relative to money supply, its potential role alongside gold, and network adoption.

The distinction matters for allocators. A 10% projected return normally supports a strategic weight in a portfolio construction model. JPMorgan's volatility warning effectively separates the return forecast from any allocation recommendation, leaving Bitcoin in a monitoring category rather than a holding category.

How did the industry react?

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan welcomed the inclusion, framing it as a milestone in institutional adoption.

"First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight at you, then they add you to their Long-Term Capital Markets Assumptions paper and predict you'll be the best-performing asset of the next decade," Hougan wrote on X.

Hougan's firm holds a more aggressive position. In August 2025, Bitwise projected Bitcoin could reach $1.3 million by 2035 with a base-case annualized return of 28.3% — nearly triple JPMorgan's central estimate.

The gap between the two forecasts illustrates the unresolved question of which reference model institutional allocators will apply to Bitcoin: a commodity-like framework anchored to money supply, or an adoption-curve framework that compounds faster.

What changes for portfolio construction?

Inclusion in the LTCMA report carries weight beyond a single number. The document serves as an input for institutional investors, advisors and consultants building long-term allocations. Bitcoin's entry into the universe of more than 200 modeled assets means the largest US bank now treats it as a permanent asset class rather than a tactical position.

The refusal to endorse Bitcoin as a diversifier reflects correlation data rather than ideology. Bitcoin's rolling correlations with equities have swung between near-zero and equity-like levels across market cycles, undermining the diversification argument that passive crypto exposure improves risk-adjusted returns.

JPMorgan's framing of Bitcoin as a hedge against monetary easing positions it closer to a debasement trade — a function gold has traditionally served — than to a growth asset. The report's 5.5% gold projection against 10% for Bitcoin suggests the bank sees the two competing for the same macro exposure, with different volatility profiles.

The next iteration of the Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, due in roughly a year, will show whether observed correlations stabilize enough for JPMorgan to convert its return forecast into an allocation case.