Novig Takes Third Spot in Prediction Markets With $1.8 Billion Month

Novig handled $1.8 billion in trading volume over the past 30 days, enough to claim the number three spot among U.S.-regulated prediction market exchanges despite launching federally in August. The figures come from the PM Pulse, a newsletter that tracks prediction market volume using data from research firm Aldrin.

The gap to the top two remains wide. Kalshi processed $33.3 billion in the same window and Polymarket's U.S. operation did $6.3 billion, according to the same data. But Novig sits roughly $300 million ahead of fourth-place Crypto.com, and its volume grew 80% from the previous 30-day period. The volume figures exclude combos—multi-game parlays—which PM Pulse operator Sam Schwartz says can inflate volume without producing proportionally more exchange revenue.

How did a sports-only upstart get there?

Novig was founded in 2021 and originally operated a sweepstakes-based model available in certain states, raising $30 million along the way. A shift in the legal landscape let it become a federally regulated prediction market this year, and that change underpinned a $75 million Series B in February at a $500 million valuation. Novig is reportedly raising again at a $2 billion valuation, though the company declined to comment on future fundraises.

Its total of $105 million raised is dwarfed by competitors. Kalshi has pulled in roughly $3.8 billion across 13 rounds, per Tracxn data, including two $1 billion rounds since May. Polymarket has raised about $3.3 billion across eight rounds, with $1 billion from Intercontinental Exchange, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, and another $1 billion led by 1789 Capital, the venture firm backed by Donald Trump Jr.

"There are very few companies I think outside of AI that have achieved our level of growth in the span of two months," Novig cofounder and CEO Jacob Fortinsky told Fortune.

Marketing did heavy lifting. Actress Sydney Sweeney, a part owner of the company, starred in a viral September campaign called "Just Sports." In the 30 days after launch, Novig says first-time deposits rose 362% and mobile app downloads jumped 261% versus the prior 30 days, according to internal company data. The app briefly hit No. 1 on the App Store's top free sports apps chart. The company has grown from 20 to 100 employees this year.

What does the market structure look like?

Kalshi holds roughly 64% of trading volume excluding combos over the past 30 days; Polymarket's U.S. and DeFi arms together hold about 23%, leaving 13% for everyone else. Novig captures 3.5%, edging out Crypto.com and DraftKings' DKeX platform for third place.

Novig runs a peer-to-peer exchange where users trade against each other rather than the house, which it says delivers tighter prices and lower costs than sportsbooks. "That's the main reason Novig saw growth early as a company—it's just such a natural draw to the professional and sophisticated users out there… they want to get the best odds possible," Schwartz said.

The company only offers sports contracts—no politics, no pop culture—and requires users to be 21 or older, a distinction from Kalshi and Polymarket, which allow 18-year-olds. The trade-off is visible in the numbers: Kalshi's election contracts hit $729 million on Election Day alone, and elections drove more than 70% of its combo-excluded volume growth that week. But on most other days this year, Schwartz noted, elections made up less than half of 1% of Kalshi's daily volume. Sports drive more than 80% of prediction market trading and run nearly every day.

What could stall it?

The low-fee pitch matters less to retail. "The majority of users out there are not price sensitive," Schwartz said—DraftKings, FanDuel and Kalshi keep winning customers while charging more.

The bigger risk is legal. A fight over the legality of sports-related prediction markets is widely expected to reach the Supreme Court next year, and several states have already moved against the platforms. Kalshi's footprint has shrunk from 50 states to 47 after bans in three, including Nevada and Michigan. Schwartz puts the odds of a ruling in June 2027 versus June 2028 at about a coin flip, and says the court would likely need to take the case by mid-January for the earlier date. Some in the industry expect access to fall from 47 states to 35 or fewer, which Schwartz said "will significantly reduce [Kalshi] and prediction market current volume and future volume, especially if they lose some of the bigger, more important states." Smaller players would feel it more.

Fortinsky isn't worried. "It's certainly not an existential risk to the company," he said. "We are set up to succeed and to crush the incumbents, no matter what the regulatory environment looks like. We have a stronger team, stronger product, and stronger velocity."