Polymarket US Volume Triples to $14.77B as Legal Pressure Mounts

Polymarket's US exchange more than tripled its trading volume between June and October, climbing roughly 266% to $14.77 billion in monthly volume from $4.04 billion, according to data from analytics platform TickerTracker. The figures count trades at the contracts' full payout value — a methodology that inflates headline turnover relative to actual matched capital, a caveat the company does not volunteer when it cites growth.

The company told CNBC on Tuesday that annualized revenue has topped $1.8 billion, up from more than $1 billion in June. That revenue claim is unaudited and self-reported; no filing or third-party verification accompanies it.

Where the volume actually comes from

Combo contracts, which bundle multiple predictions into a single wager, accounted for $8.6 billion, or 58.2%, of October's volume. Sports contracts ranked second at $4.57 billion, or 31%. In plain terms, nearly nine of every ten dollars traded on the US exchange in October sat in bundled wagers and sports markets rather than the political forecasting that built the platform's brand.

The growth accelerated after Polymarket widened US access in May, admitting American traders to a separate exchange in late 2025 — three years after a Commodity Futures Trading Commission settlement forced it to block US users from its international platform.

The FIFA World Cup, which ran from June 11 to July 19, supplied a catalyst. Soccer contracts generated $1.81 billion in June volume, up from $85.4 million in May — a more than twentyfold increase in a single month, though one that receded with the tournament.

Political markets remain marginal. Election-related contracts produced $108.2 million in the first ten days of November, versus $16.6 million across all of September. Even at that pace, political markets represented just 2.2% of November volume. The platform is now, operationally, a sports-betting venue with a politics sidebar.

What is the regulatory exposure?

The volume surge has not quieted the legal front. The CFTC was reportedly investigating Polymarket earlier this year, though neither the agency nor the company has confirmed the probe's status or scope.

Senators John Curtis and Adam Schiff separately called on the regulator in June to examine allegations that Polymarket paid social media influencers to promote fabricated trades. Polymarket told Cointelegraph it was "conducting a comprehensive audit of active promotional content to ensure it complies with our standards, as well as applicable regulatory and legal disclosure requirements." An audit the company commissions itself, with no independent reviewer named, answers few of the senators' questions.

New York Attorney General Letitia James sued Polymarket in September, alleging its sports-related event contracts violate state gambling laws. The suit sits within a broader wave of state actions against prediction market operators, including Kalshi, over whether their contracts fall under federal commodities regulation or state gambling statutes.

The CFTC has defended its authority, pursuing legal action involving 10 states that seek to enforce their gambling laws against the platforms. In September, New Jersey officials petitioned the US Supreme Court to hear their case against Kalshi — a petition that, if accepted, could settle which regulator governs sports-related prediction markets nationwide.

What does the funding round signal?

Polymarket is pursuing a $1 billion funding round at a reported $21 billion post-money valuation, according to reports. Investment firm 1789 Capital, where Donald Trump Jr. is a partner, is reportedly leading the round with an expected contribution of about $300 million. Neither figure is confirmed by filed documents.

A $21 billion valuation premised on World Cup-boosted, payout-inflated volume metrics carries obvious fragility — the same monthly figures could compress once the tournament-cycle demand fades. Separately, Polymarket and Binance have sought a Polygon hard fork to recover $6.8 million in stolen crypto, a reminder that operational risk persists alongside the legal kind.

The Supreme Court's decision on New Jersey's petition, and the outcome of the New York suit, will likely determine whether the growth thesis survives contact with US gambling law.