Polymarket's US Volume Climbs 266% to $14.77 Billion Amid Legal Fight

By Nathan Brooks

Polymarket's US exchange processed $14.77 billion in monthly trading volume in October, up roughly 266% from $4.04 billion in June, according to data compiled by analytics platform Ticker Tracker and reported by Cointelegraph on November 10. The company also said annualized revenue has climbed from more than $1 billion in June to above $1.8 billion.

The growth is arriving while the platform remains entangled in regulatory disputes at both state and federal level — a tension that will determine how durable the expansion proves.

What is driving the volume?

Sports-related prediction products and multi-leg contracts account for the bulk of the increase. In October, multi-leg contracts — trades that bundle several predictions into a single position — reached $8.6 billion in volume, or 58.2% of the total. Sports contracts contributed $4.57 billion, or 31%.

Soccer was the standout. Soccer-related volume surged to $1.81 billion in June, when the FIFA World Cup began, from $85.4 million a month earlier — a roughly twentyfold jump in a single month.

Political trading also rose around the US midterm elections, though it remains a small share of the book. From November 1 through November 10, election-related contract volume reached $108.2 million, exceeding the entire September total of $16.6 million. Even so, political trades represented just 2.2% of total volume this month.

The composition matters for practitioners: Polymarket's US business is no longer primarily a political-events venue. It now resembles a sportsbook-adjacent derivatives platform, which is precisely the characterisation that state regulators are contesting.

The $21 billion funding round

Polymarket is raising approximately $1 billion at a $21 billion valuation, according to the Cointelegraph report. Investment firm 1789 Capital — where Donald Trump Jr., the eldest son of US President Donald Trump, is a partner — is set to lead the round with an investment of about $300 million.

A raise of that size, at that valuation, signals investor confidence that the platform can withstand pending legal challenges. It also provides the balance sheet to sustain a prolonged regulatory fight if courts rule against the exchange in key jurisdictions.

What does the legal fight change?

The central unresolved question is which authority governs sports prediction contracts. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission maintains that prediction markets fall under federal commodities law. Several state governments argue the contracts constitute gambling and therefore require state licensing and supervision. New Jersey petitioned the US Supreme Court in September to rule on the dispute.

Two active proceedings bear directly on operations:

• New York Attorney General Letitia James sued Polymarket in September, alleging its sports-related contracts violated state gambling law.
• At the federal level, there have been calls for the CFTC to investigate allegations that Polymarket paid social media influencers to promote sham trading activity.

Polymarket resumed trading for US users through a US-only exchange at the end of last year and has broadened access since May. The volume figures reflect that expansion — but the legal status of sports prediction markets remains unsettled.

The practical read

For market makers, liquidity providers and institutional participants, the numbers translate into a materially deeper market: October's $14.77 billion in monthly volume averages roughly $476 million per day in contract payouts. Multi-leg products accounting for nearly six of every ten dollars traded indicates growing product sophistication and, with it, more complex risk profiles.

The unresolved variable is jurisdictional. If the Supreme Court agrees to hear New Jersey's petition, or if the New York suit advances on the merits, the product mix that generated this growth could face geographic restrictions. Conversely, a federal-preemption ruling would remove the state-law cloud hanging over sports contracts.

The near-term watch points are concrete: the New Jersey petition's fate before the Supreme Court, the trajectory of the New York action, and whether the CFTC opens a formal investigation into the influencer-promotion allegations.