Polymarket revenue run rate tops $1.8 billion after US launch

Polymarket said on Tuesday that its annualized revenue run rate had exceeded $1.8 billion, according to figures the prediction-market operator shared with CNBC. The metric stood above $1 billion in June, following the May launch of its US exchange.

Polymarket opened a waitlist for US users in December 2025, then removed it for the iOS app in mid-May 2026. Domestic users gained full access roughly six weeks before the company disclosed a revenue run rate above $1 billion.

The latest figure is more than four times Sacra’s approximately $375 million run-rate estimate for May 2026. No calculation method, trading-volume breakdown or profitability measure accompanied the company figures. A run rate annualizes recent activity; it does not establish a full year of revenue or profit.

What changed when the US exchange opened?

The company’s revenue trajectory steepened after the US exchange opened, according to the figures it provided. The disclosure does not isolate how much revenue came from US users or separate the two venues.

Daily notional volume on the US exchange rose from about $50 million in mid-May 2026 to more than $200 million by June 20. That represents roughly a fourfold increase in about five weeks.

Polymarket now operates two distinct operations, a structure that complicates any attribution of the revenue increase to one venue. The US launch marks the clearest documented break in the company’s trading trajectory.

What role did fees and the World Cup play?

Polymarket operated without fees before beginning to charge them in early 2026. Sports contracts emerged as a major revenue driver, alongside political and other event categories.

Heightened activity around the FIFA World Cup boosted volumes on both the US exchange and the international platform. The figures do not quantify how much of the $1.8 billion run rate came from sports contracts.

The World Cup is seasonal, not a permanent fixture. If sports remain a major revenue source, Polymarket will need a steady flow of events to keep traders engaged. Sustaining growth after the tournament will depend on a broader event calendar.

How do the US and international platforms differ?

The US exchange operates under oversight from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Its international platform instead follows a decentralized-finance model, with trades settling through blockchain-based infrastructure rather than a traditional regulated exchange.

Polymarket was founded in 2020 and reached a $1.4 million settlement with the CFTC in 2022. Four years later, the company operates a CFTC-regulated US exchange under that same regulator’s supervision.

Intercontinental Exchange, which owns the New York Stock Exchange, pledged up to $2 billion in investment in 2025. The deal valued Polymarket at roughly $8 billion.

Fundraising is reportedly continuing, while unnamed projections suggest annualized revenue could reach $2 billion as the company raises capital. Neither the projection’s author nor its methodology was identified, and Polymarket’s own figure stands above $1.8 billion.

CFTC regulation gives the US venue legitimacy and access to American users, while adding oversight and compliance obligations that the decentralized platform does not carry in the same form. The US business now carries a heavier compliance burden.

Can the revenue increase persist?

The scale of the change is visible in one comparison: Sacra’s $375 million May estimate became a company-reported run rate above $1.8 billion. US daily notional volume also roughly quadrupled in about five weeks.

The acceleration is material, but its durability remains unproven. The figures do not separate recurring revenue from World Cup activity or disclose margins, user counts or trading economics.

The US launch has raised Polymarket’s revenue base; sustaining that level is the harder task. Polymarket’s next test is whether revenue stays elevated after the World Cup, with fees now in place and CFTC oversight continuing.